Stock Up Before War

[MG5150]

Hi All

I've only had my license for 18 months now so don't have a long term big picture experience to draw from.

With tension in Middle East and the potential next war, is it time to stock up on ammo?

My thoughts

-apparently ammo was hard to come by during covid due to supply issues (hard to get and price went up)
-if the war escalates I assume most factories start producing for war efforts before civillinas)
-supply chains might be interrupted
-cost of living is driving price up already so they'll never get cheaper....

If this is a pattern that happens every so often and I should stock up now (to avoid paying extra or running out of ammo for hunting - not so I can fortify myself in a basement bunker lol) let me know

[womble]

Never needed an excuse to stock up on ammo unfortunately.

Ideally it becomes currency. Meanwhile I’m just more poorer for it.

But as for how much in said hypothetical. You need to be able to carry it.

I think you’d need to be prepared to go mobile at short notice.

[Oldbloke]

Seems to me every 6-7 years there are shortages and prices increase.
Prices recover for a short time and up they go again.
We are a small market compared to US. They are notorious prepers.

If you see a bargain buy, buy, buy, within reason of course.

[bladeracer]

-cost of living is driving price up already so they'll never get cheaper....

This is the main reason I always replenish my stocks. If I plan to be shooting next week, next year, or in twenty years, the ammo and components are never going to get cheaper than they are now. Buy regularly and sign-up to email notifications with the big shops so you can grab the sales when they happen.

[bladeracer]

But as for how much in said hypothetical. You need to be able to carry it.

I think you’d need to be prepared to go mobile at short notice.

In an actual break-down-of-society situation then yes, you want some cases of .22 ammo and several identical rifles so you have backups while you repair the one that's gone down (if you need to fabricate a part it helps to have a working rifle you can copy from). 5000rds of .22LR ammo takes up about 160mm by 160mm by 350mm of volume (about nine litres), and weighs about 16kg to 18kg, depending on the bullet weight and packaging. Good luck going "mobile" with 5000rds of 9mm, .223 or 12 gauge ammo. I just weighed 100rds of 115gn 9mm at 1155gm, or 1265gm including the MTM box. I did a spreadsheet years ago of ammo weights, all relative to .22LR ammo. 9mm and .223 weigh four times as much as .22LR, .308 is seven times the weight, .303 is eight times, 8x57mm is nine times, and 12ga. is thirteen times heavier than .22LR.

In this situation I lean toward tube magazines rather than detachable box mags. 10mm aluminium tube cut into 400mm lengths makes very cheap 15rd-magazines to feed a tube rifle fairly rapidly. I have Ruger magazines to hold 135rds, which also take me ten minutes to load, but are far more expensive and far bulkier to carry. It takes around twenty seconds to load the rifle using these tubes, including putting the cap back on and putting the empty back in your pocket, about 15 seconds if you just drop them.

It takes me ten minutes to load these with 250rds for our weekly lever-action practices, and I have speed dumped all 250rds onto targets with the Henry in under ten minutes lots of times.

[bladeracer]

As for how much you want to keep in stock, that will vary quite considerably based on your usage and the resupply situation. During covid when powders and primers (and bullets for a short period) were in short supply I shot a lot less centrefire rifle ammo and a lot more .22LR and 12ga. as they were still plentiful.

If the war remains outside our region and we simply continue our normal sporting endeavours then you would probably want to have at least four years supply on hand, if it looks like going longer then you can cut down on the amount you're using. Because I got back into pistol shooting last year my usage this year has changed, less rifle shooting, but the overall amount hasn't increased a huge amount. My round count for this year so far stands at 13,618rds (1662rds of that is .177" air pistol/rifle). The rest is split almost exactly 50/50 rifle/pistol with a few hundred 12 gauge shells.

[MG5150]

Seems to me every 6-7 years there are shortages and prices increase.
Prices recover for a short time and up they go again.
We are a small market compared to US. They are notorious prepers.

If you see a bargain buy, buy, buy, within reason of course.

what's a bargain by today's standard.

30-06 ammo is $50-$57 for a winchester or remington 20pk
.223 is $41 for a 20pk of the ADi Gamekings 55gr
22LR can be anything from $14-$20 for a 50pk (I paid $75 for a 300pk or winchester power point last week)
Shotgun shells were $27 for a 20pk of fox ones (you can tell how new to this I am)


Also, realistically how many rounds do you think you need to prep/stockpile?

[MG5150]

As for how much you want to keep in stock, that will vary quite considerably based on your usage and the resupply situation. During covid when powders and primers (and bullets for a short period) were in short supply I shot a lot less centrefire rifle ammo and a lot more .22LR and 12ga. as they were still plentiful.

If the war remains outside our region and we simply continue our normal sporting endeavours then you would probably want to have at least four years supply on hand, if it looks like going longer then you can cut down on the amount you're using. Because I got back into pistol shooting last year my usage this year has changed, less rifle shooting, but the overall amount hasn't increased a huge amount. My round count for this year so far stands at 13,618rds (1662rds of that is .177" air pistol/rifle). The rest is split almost exactly 50/50 rifle/pistol with a few hundred 12 gauge shells.

4 years seems like a long time... you'd think with all the technology advancements they'd get them over and done with sooner - Russia/Ukraine has been going on for the 3rd year now right?

I think I'd only go through 2-3 boxes of 30-06 a year deer hunting unless I add in some extra target shooting. I'm sure I'd be out hunting more in a SHTF scenario

PS. that's a s**t tonne of rounds!

[No1Mk3]

Be aware there is a Regulated limit in our State on how much ammo you are allowed to keep on your property as a private individual which is 40,000 cartridges in total. Prosecutions a very few and far between, but have happened, and the coppers really need to be looking for an excuse to ping you. Refer Dangerous Goods (Explosives) Regulations 2022, Part 5.

[bladeracer]

what's a bargain by today's standard.

30-06 ammo is $50-$57 for a winchester or remington 20pk
.223 is $41 for a 20pk of the ADi Gamekings 55gr
22LR can be anything from $14-$20 for a 50pk (I paid $75 for a 300pk or winchester power point last week)
Shotgun shells were $27 for a 20pk of fox ones (you can tell how new to this I am)


Also, realistically how many rounds do you think you need to prep/stockpile?

If you want to stockpile enough ammo for a few years I wouldn't be buying factory centrefire, especially not in something like .30-06. In 9mm, .223 and .308 you might be able to get good bulk deals to make those worth stockpiling (I bought 5000rds of 9mm this year for 52c apiece). But you're better off buying a press, die sets, components and spend a few evenings loading your own. If you have multiple chamberings buy primers, brass and bullets for each, load enough for a year say, but leave most as components until you need them. Then, depending on how circumstances change, you can load what you need at the time. You don't want to be stuck with 2000rds of .223 and 200rds of .30-06 when your .223 gets stolen or broken. If you stockpile .30-06 and you lose your rifle, you have to find somebody else with a .30-06 to barter your ammo to. .22LR, .223 or .308 are better choices overall I think.

Buy your rimfire ammo by the case, I can't see any sensible reason not to. I bought four cases of Remington Cyclones for $550 each last September, $5.50 a box. And I was buying cases of CCI Standard Velocity for between $600 and $700 a case last year. That's a couple years of cheap shooting, and if the s**t hits the fan and I need to hunt for my food every day that'll get me a lot of meat.

And the only shotshells I buy are 12 gauge field loads in 250rd slabs, a slab does not go far when you're having fun. The last ones I bought were $130, or 52 cents a round. I've ordered some Cowboy loads (26g 825fps) which are going to be around $170/250. If you don't have a use for the #7-1/2 shot, dump it out and put in whatever you do want. I mainly use BB's and Lee slugs.

As for how many, I would try to keep a few hundred rounds loaded for each of your centrefire rifles. If a mate is coming around to have a play, or there's a shoot coming up, I don't want be up all night loading ammo beforehand. I'm planning to get to an eight-day shoot in Qld in September, which will be over 400rds in the pistols, 400rds in the rifles, and 200rds in the guns, so I'll take more than double that number.

[bladeracer]

4 years seems like a long time... you'd think with all the technology advancements they'd get them over and done with sooner - Russia/Ukraine has been going on for the 3rd year now right?

I think I'd only go through 2-3 boxes of 30-06 a year deer hunting unless I add in some extra target shooting. I'm sure I'd be out hunting more in a SHTF scenario

PS. that's a s**t tonne of rounds!

I figured Ukraine would've been over in weeks, but once the West got involved they've managed to keep it going indefinitely. I just figure whatever you're using now per year, quadruple it. If everything settles down quickly you've got ammo in the cupboard anyway, that's not a lose situation. If it drags out for ten years you can probably make your supply stretch the distance. If it looks like lasting forever you can perhaps make your supply last you long enough if you husband it carefully.

Yes, we'll all be out hunting for our food, which might finally put a dent in feral numbers

[bladeracer]

Be aware there is a Regulated limit in our State on how much ammo you are allowed to keep on your property as a private individual which is 40,000 cartridges in total. Prosecutions a very few and far between, but have happened, and the coppers really need to be looking for an excuse to ping you. Refer Dangerous Goods (Explosives) Regulations 2022, Part 5.

I think all states have regs regarding quantities, even dealers have fairly tight limits on powder quantities. SA had that thing where you could only have as much ammo in stock as you would use in one year, is that still in place? A good reason to stock up on components rather than loaded ammo, but there are limits on powders and primers as well. Owning several small properties instead of one big one might be an advantage in this regard.

[Oldbloke]

Seems to me every 6-7 years there are shortages and prices increase.
Prices recover for a short time and up they go again.
We are a small market compared to US. They are notorious prepers.

If you see a bargain buy, buy, buy, within reason of course.

what's a bargain by today's standard.

30-06 ammo is $50-$57 for a winchester or remington 20pk
.223 is $41 for a 20pk of the ADi Gamekings 55gr
22LR can be anything from $14-$20 for a 50pk (I paid $75 for a 300pk or winchester power point last week)
Shotgun shells were $27 for a 20pk of fox ones (you can tell how new to this I am)


Also, realistically how many rounds do you think you need to prep/stockpile?

TBH I can't comment on prices of ammo.
I reload and am only interested in components.

Best guess, keep 3-4 years worth in stock.

As BR said, start loading.

[wanneroo]

We've been through so many shortages and excuses for shortages and higher prices that's why I started reloading, so I would at least have some other options to make my own supply.

My stance is 3 years supply on hand with enough components to reload everything you have at least once.

I blew past that during the last Trump admin when prices were low and I think I probably have enough on hand to 2040 at current rates of consumption. I probably don't shoot as much as I can or should, especially considering I have a nice range and range building. I spend more time keeping that up looking nice than shooting. A contractor just put in a new cowboy grill next to the fire pit.

[womble]

I think when it comes it we be swarms of miniature drones that just drill into your head and explode.

I think I want a shotgun and an endless supply of bird shot.

And a wide brimmed hat strung with corks to detonate them.

Sometimes the old technology wins

[MG5150]

I think when it comes it we be swarms of miniature drones that just drill into your head and explode.

I think I want a shotgun and an endless supply of bird shot.

And a wide brimmed hat strung with corks to detonate them.

Sometimes the old technology wins

put netting over your home/property and plastic fly screens like the loal fish n chip shop on all the doors

[womble]

Yes good advice.

Maybe some of those electric fly zappers placed around like claymores

[wanneroo]

I think when it comes it we be swarms of miniature drones that just drill into your head and explode.

I think I want a shotgun and an endless supply of bird shot.

And a wide brimmed hat strung with corks to detonate them.

Sometimes the old technology wins

Yes drones have changed everything.

I have a DJI Mini 4 Pro drone and it's impressive what it can do.

[MG5150]

I have a DJI Mini 4 Pro drone and it's impressive what it can do.

I've been keen to get a drone and got recommended the DJI brand ones. Have you put it to much use for hunting?

Here's a fairly popular incluencer giving his opinion on drone warfare: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Z2Uq-Cx9V4s