I have an uneducated theory that its something to do with the heat in the chamber/receiver shifting the alignment of the cartridge somehow/something to do with heat around the barrel/receiver junction anyway...
My T3 7-08 does it with a magneto strapped to the barrel....25"-.5" groups open up to .75"-1.0" groups respectively with the first cold shot flyer.
With magneto strapped on, can clearly see the flyer clocking around the group as the loads increase...
Thing is, take the magneto off & the groups open up to .75"-1.0", and the first cold shot flyer stays within the larger group....
I stopped wasting ammo on trying to figure it out....its not a 300 yd bunny headshooter, but it will hit a goat in the head at 200 easy, so i just have to deal with it as much as i hate it.
If its a hunting rig (as mine is)...set it up so the warm barrel group is on song & hold for they flyer..
....my theory for that is with the first shot you often have the time to think about the hold-off...if however you need quick follow up shots-say running goats going nutso because you upset them with the first shot,--get a second shot into a deer while on the skiddadle,--smack a cat at 200 that is trying to Matrix move its way into the scrub,--you dont have the time nor mental space to think about the hold-off as well as any adjustment to lead your target, so better off letting your concentration funnel purely into instinct & let hand-eye coordination take over then & just rely on the reticle being true POI.
Ofcourse, that depends on what youre hunting/shooting, & how long between shots.
If its a varmint rig & youre only going to smack one bunny out to 300 at a time every 10 mins in the Tassy cold air, the cold shot may be the way to go for zero...
There is always the option of a Xmas tree reticle with hash marks for referencing the cold shot at given ranges on a set magnification...thats how i shoot the reduced loads in my little 204 that have a diff POI..
Anyway...thats be dun my thoughts rite there mister...
Oh & marksman...those targets...
ppffftt...
The man who knows everything, doesnt really know everything...he's just stopped learning...