A serious question.

[Baronvonrort]

Baron, I've explained to you why the numbers are how they are and even reconciled your figures to the estimated overall rate. I've also explained why this statement...

"Closed cases are the only accurate numbers we have at this time for outcome as those numbers are known"

...is incorrect because it only relates to a subset of cases, and not all cases, because the vast majority are mild and won't have a 'recovery' recorded at this point. See Chinese data - the number 'recovered' there is basically anyone who is not known to be sick or hasn't died after a period of time, and their death rate is ~4.4%. That's the closest we have to a complete data set at the moment, noting my previous caveat about Chinese data (you can't simply throw it out because it disagrees with your thesis, however!).

You'll see the same kind of numbers once it flows through other countries, "recoveries" will increase as people are assumed to have recovered who haven't died and the numbers will move towards the numbers I previously calculated. In the same way that the link you posted says you can't compare deaths to current cases, you can't compare deaths to current recoveries.

FYI I have done this stuff for a living, I was an actuary in the early part of my career and have worked in/around life insurance companies for a long time now.

At least there is enough good info in this thread for people to make up their own minds about calculating the numbers. That can only be a good thing, right?

Closed cases are the correct way to calculate this the observed results match 100% with the maths used unlike the flawed method which is way off not even close with observed results.

When you calculate from number of infections vs deaths that is assuming there will be no more deaths do you see the flaw in that way of thinking when outcomes for open cases are unknown?

How many times do I have to point out I don't believe the Chinese numbers or even their official claim on the origins of this pandemic?

Yes the vast majority of cases are mild we could also say every serious case started out as a mild case. With this Kung Flu every case starts out as mild then people get worse, some recover others deteriorate further get put on Oxygen if that doesn't work they intubate them stick them on a ventilator where they usually stay until they die. This process takes a few weeks.

The numbers I see from other countries like UK, USA, Italy and Spain show an incredible death rate with closed cases

[Ziege]

f*** me, people are more concerned with if they can catch it or not, what % likelihood etc... As for surviving it, the media and government has been more than forward explaining who is at most risk, obviously some fall outside that classification but that can't be helped. Surely that's the end of the vitriolic Carry on?

[Die Judicii]

Yet another question.

Can anyone on here say that they have seen or know of any cases where someone has been tested positive,,,,,,,,,,, and the powers to be
are actually investigating where that person has been,,,, and who has had contact with them ?

[TassieTiger]

Tassie, i think baron is not at university.... or if he is.. maybe he is doing gender studies or something like that.

Everyone's logic 1+ 2 = 3
Baron's logic 108 + 55 = 269


I am out of this discussion... my head hurts

I’m out as well. The same flaws that baron is pointing out, is exactly the same reason why, you cannot solely rely on closed cases. My head was hurting 3 days ago but I thought I’d try - but I’m now passed 10 Panadol a day and can’t keep taken em.

To answer below Re who knows anyone. I know about 9 ppl right now - who have been told to self isolate, due to possible CV but they do not meet current testing criteria. 5 came in from Bali just one day before border closed, when Tas had single figure cases. Other 4 have very bad flu but their paths haven’t apparently crossed with a known infection - what ever that is - so they may / may not have CV.

[Ziege]

Heard some stuff by proxy but that was referring to someone being out in self isolation as a cautionary after returning from asia, no word if they tested positive or not

[trekin]

So unlikely the Kung Flu was there in Nov as claimed.

Be interesting to see where the big clusters are in Qld, if it was there earlier as claimed the numbers near Sarina would be interesting

Who's claiming it was here in Nov, I didn't. And yes, the numbers are interesting, there was in fact a cluster of people with an unknown virus in the Mackay/Sarina area, the Central Highlands, Bundaburg, and huge clutter on the Gold Coast. However, I doubt you are really that interested as this would not fit your narrative that this virus could not have been here before local doctors were warned about what symptoms they should watch out for, and the first test kits were made available.

[poid]

You know Baron you're right, next time I calc some mortality rates I'll use your logic and calculate it as the number of sick people who have died rather than the number in the population who have died. I'll be fired for being useless, but hey it'll scare the s**t out of people.

I'm out, there are other things to do.

[sungazer]

Baron even if we used your logic why not use a country that is very similar to Australia? South Korea is such a country they can be trusted they have a good health care system they do have a higher population density. Anyway with 9661 cases 5228 of them have been closed they have only had 158 people die. How about you run your stats on that. It is a good sample size.

[Sergeant Hartman]

Yet another question.

Can anyone on here say that they have seen or know of any cases where someone has been tested positive,,,,,,,,,,, and the powers to be
are actually investigating where that person has been,,,, and who has had contact with them ?

Hmm i know who is a relative a healthcare worker in US that got it about 2/3 weeks ago, spent the time at home.. was deemed a mild case.... Yes came positive for coronavirus. Not dead...but likely might die due to boredom.

[marksman]

Yet another question.

Can anyone on here say that they have seen or know of any cases where someone has been tested positive,,,,,,,,,,, and the powers to be
are actually investigating where that person has been,,,, and who has had contact with them ?

l know of two young people who came back from china and tested with it 5 weeks ago, the son inlaws brother and wife
one had it mildly, the other thought she was going to die through it, they are lucky and they know it
because of what they saw in china they self isolated without being told they had to until they were tested
she is of chinese descent and they both lived and worked there
they have had a very big effect on how anyone who knows them is treating this virus because of what they are saying is really happening in china

its a pretty hard ask knowing the population number and the so called confirmed cases, we know many people were not tested
there has been so much bullsh1t about it anyone who does not take it seriously is an idiot
and if you think because you are young or healthy you will be ok you are also an idiot

[sungazer]

Looking at the John Hopkins site there are a lot of countries that the daily rise has really leveled off and in quite a few cases it is decreasing. On the other hand countries that you think should be really hard hit with it are not showing very many cases.
This is just a hypothetical but I wonder if the virus has some sort of life time to it. Will it only be around for a limited time or will infections keep rising where they are allowed to. Are there environmental conditions in some countries that have impacted the spread of the virus?

[Baronvonrort]

Baron even if we used your logic why not use a country that is very similar to Australia? South Korea is such a country they can be trusted they have a good health care system they do have a higher population density. Anyway with 9661 cases 5228 of them have been closed they have only had 158 people die. How about you run your stats on that. It is a good sample size.

South Korea isn't very similar to Australia with this they have experience in dealing with SARS and MERS outbreaks in the past they also have an App which alerts you if you have been within 100m of a diagnosed case.

With SARS and MERS experience South Korea and Hong Kong were the first to take this Kung Flu seriously.

If we look at the way of calculating death rate from infections vs deaths it should accurately predict the amount of dead bodies we can expect to count in morgues with observed results.
Those who calculate it this way come up with 0.4 % death rate- https://www.google.com.au/search?ei=T6GCXqiTEcrgz7sP_-iqsAw&q=death+rate+coronavirus+0.4%25&oq=death+rate+coronavirus+0.4%25&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzoHCAAQgwEQQzoECAAQQzoCCAA6BggAEAoQQzoFCAAQzQJQxGBYiXdg535oAHAAeACAAd8BiAGBCpIBBTAuNi4xmAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdpeg&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjo9o-PzMPoAhVK8HMBHX-0CsYQ4dUDCAo&uact=5

The Observed results we see from closed cases in Sth Korea and Hong Kong who are dealing with this better than most have the death rate at 3%.

3% is a lot higher than 0.4% by a huge magnitude it's not even close which shows the formula used to calculate death rate is wrong. If the mathematical prediction doesn't match with observed results the maths used is garbage.

The observed results with closed cases including dodgy numbers from China and Iran have current death rate at 19%

Denmark has 1 recovered with 77 deaths for a 99% death rate.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

When this virus becomes extinct with no open cases then you can look at calculating it your way it cannot be done that way with a huge number of open cases where outcome is unknown.

This is the method that should be used-
"During an outbreak of a novel or emerging infectious agent such as SARS, one of the most important epidemiologic quantities to be determined is the case fatality ratio—the proportion of cases who eventually die from the disease. This ratio is often estimated by using aggregate numbers of cases and deaths at a single time point, such as those compiled daily by the World Health Organization during the course of the SARS epidemic (5). However, simple estimates of the case fatality ratio obtained from these reports can be misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a nonnegligible proportion of patients." https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647

[Sergeant Hartman]

Mate where did you read 0.4%? Even i a lay time person said 3-4% bank in late feb.

Any way for Australia about 200k tests done with 4300 infected. 50 are in ICU, 20 on ventilators. And 19 deaths.

With our health care system not stretched we are actually seeing very reasonable numbers. So what would you class Australia numbers as? If you say 30% then maybe the govt and media are hiding something

[Ziege]

Ok f*** who cares....


End of the day, wash ya hands stay the fk away from others, shower regularly and use sanitizer and clean common surfaces and practice good hygiene and food preparation, don't touch your face and don't accept handshakes etc...

If ya get it, ya get it, in that circumstance stay the fk away from everyone else including family members and neighbours, of you have a wreckless moron in your household kick them out.

Do all that and you'll minimise your risk.. I personally packed up weeks ago and left the city and won't be returning, my ex will not be seeing the kids and that's that.

[marksman]

Ok f*** who cares....


End of the day, wash ya hands stay the fk away from others, shower regularly and use sanitizer and clean common surfaces and practice good hygiene and food preparation, don't touch your face and don't accept handshakes etc...

If ya get it, ya get it, in that circumstance stay the fk away from everyone else including family members and neighbours, of you have a wreckless moron in your household kick them out.

Do all that and you'll minimise your risk.. I personally packed up weeks ago and left the city and won't be returning, my ex will not be seeing the kids and that's that.

good advise and if everyone does all that it will never be as bad as it could have been

and fark your ex

[Die Judicii]

I think you guys completely missed the point,,, in my last question.
I was NOT asking if anyone knows a person/s that have been tested for the virus.

So i'll put it this way,,,,,,, Bill Smith gets tested and shows positive.
So the health authorities then ask him to list all places (shops/workplace/etc) that he has been to or in contact
with while considered to be contagious,,,, and all people he has had contact with.

Then,,,,,, the authorities trace back and contact those places and people for observation/isolation/testing etc to prevent more spread.

So,,,,,,, does anyone here know of case/s here in Australia where that has actually happened or happening ????

THAT IS WHAT I WAS ASKING.

[marksman]

sorry but no

[TassieTiger]

Well there was this one guy that...
Sorry no.

[Ziege]

So I was on the fence about this before

But there has been an avalanche of videos posted showing a strong case for this stuff panning out as to be as big of a load of s**t as H1N1 scare back in the day.

Empty testing clinics, when the news says they're full, empty hospitals and hospital lobby's after the media says they're overflowing, independent surveys finding little to no people who actually know anyone in isolation or infected, USA and au media using Chinese and Italian footage and pics to prove their rhetoric cos no actual evidence here to use

[trekin]

So I was on the fence about this before

But there has been an avalanche of videos posted showing a strong case for this stuff panning out as to be as big of a load of s**t as H1N1 scare back in the day.

Empty testing clinics, when the news says they're full, empty hospitals and hospital lobby's after the media says they're overflowing, independent surveys finding little to no people who actually know anyone in isolation or infected, USA and au media using Chinese and Italian footage and pics to prove their rhetoric cos no actual evidence here to use

If even half the truth was to get out, then there'd be a reset alright, but not the way some wanted.

[Sergeant Hartman]

So I was on the fence about this before

But there has been an avalanche of videos posted showing a strong case for this stuff panning out as to be as big of a load of s**t as H1N1 scare back in the day.

Empty testing clinics, when the news says they're full, empty hospitals and hospital lobby's after the media says they're overflowing, independent surveys finding little to no people who actually know anyone in isolation or infected, USA and au media using Chinese and Italian footage and pics to prove their rhetoric cos no actual evidence here to use

Well we have a population of 25m people with a bit over 4000 cases of covid19. So in every 6000 ppl there is 1 covid patient......no wonder no one knows anyone.

By same logic 1 person in every 2000 people is infected in the US.

Italy is under 600 people for every 1 covid infected patient.

[Member-Deleted]

The first known case in Aus was detected only after they had knowledge of, and the tests to detect it. Can you, or any one else, unequivocally discount that, I or hundreds of other QLDER's who suffered the same symptoms back in Dec/Jan, test results that showed an "unknown " virus, or in some cases, an "unknown" sister virus to the flu didn't have what is now known as covid19? Not even my own brother, one of Aus leading medical pathologists can tell me that without getting his hands on one of those finger prick tests from England. It was so prevalent in my area that the local doctors coined their own name for it, the Blackwater virus.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-28/ ... s/12291484

Covid related death in Blackwater and as yet no idea how he got infected. this could get interesting...

[poid]

Been thinking about what trekin said for a while now, some countries reckon the virus was around well before the Chinese reported it and so it's possible that we had it here before we think. A bunch of us at work got knocked around in Dec/Jan by something unusual, including me. Sore throat, dry cough, lethargic and it took ages to clear away (i was coughing for weeks, never had that happen before)...a couple of people were hit pretty hard an spent some time in bed recovering. I vaguely remember a co-worker's boyfriend being diagnosed with pneumonia at the time. So i'm wondering whether antibody testing will show that a LOT of people have had it, like they have in New York.

The way that poor bloke's death has been reported annoys me; reported as a "covid death" when he clearly had other issues that are far more likely to be cause of death. I think we've been pretty good at the numbers here, but the distinction between died with covid and died OF covid is important.

[Member-Deleted]

For the already frail or ill, the issue of whether it was "died with", or "died of" can be a tough distinction to make. If a person has existing chronic health issues, was it the symptoms/complications caused by the virus that pushed them over the edge?

[trekin]

The first known case in Aus was detected only after they had knowledge of, and the tests to detect it. Can you, or any one else, unequivocally discount that, I or hundreds of other QLDER's who suffered the same symptoms back in Dec/Jan, test results that showed an "unknown " virus, or in some cases, an "unknown" sister virus to the flu didn't have what is now known as covid19? Not even my own brother, one of Aus leading medical pathologists can tell me that without getting his hands on one of those finger prick tests from England. It was so prevalent in my area that the local doctors coined their own name for it, the Blackwater virus.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-28/ ... s/12291484

Covid related death in Blackwater and as yet no idea how he got infected. this could get interesting...

The French have been retesting flu patients from earlier this year and have now found the SARS (the same antibodies as the covid 19, and which is what the finger prick tests are loking for) antibodies in patients going back to Dec 2019.
Yep, something very on the nose with that case. Australia now has a "PCR based test on special instruments can turn them around in under 50 minutes. Katherine has such an instrument. Not available everywhere as they are expensive to run, and there is a shortage of the test packs.", so highly unlikely to have used this test first time on someone who was already terminally ill and not suspected of dieing "from" or "with", at the time of death. Second postmortum test come back negative, but they say the testing method was flawed (PCR tests are only 80% - 85% accutate with a 35% chance of a false neg). He was house bound since Feb this year with his illness. His partner has been tested twice, with two negs returned. Blackwater has had no confirmed cases before, and up until a week or so ago CQ had gone a month and a half without a case. They have tried to link the nurse?/receptionist (another fishy story) from Rocky to this bloke, but have not been unable to. Their two fever clinics in Blackwater are restricted to 500 tests only, and only if you meet their criteria. Pretty much anyone wanting to know how and why via the local FB comminty page are having their questions deleted. So far 18 of the 20 people who had contact with him and his partner over the last couple of weeks have returned neg test results. The remaining two are being tested today. If they, the Gov't dropped their push to test sewage (again), and sent the money on testing the people of Blackwater/bluff area. they would go some way to answering the question of how this sort of case could happen.

[trekin]

And so panic buying V2.0 has started. B/water's Woolies shelfs have been pretty much cleared of everthing this morning. d**kheads, the lot of them!!

[AussieCapitalist]

The US government are giving American hospitals $13000 for a covid case and 39000$ if the patient has to use a ventilator.. No wonder the saying at the moment is "gun shot man dies of covid 19".

Most people could have already of had the virus and would not even know. seeing as the symptoms are low for most people. The western world just got to experience what it is like to live under communism. Being told what to do 24/7

[trekin]

Apparently, they will keep running the test until they get another positive, then lean on the Rocky nurse until she "admits" to have been in contact with him. That way they can continue to deny that the virus was here earlier then they say. Even though the B/water case was showing symptoms in the first week of May, and nurse wasn't contagous until the second week, but our State health minister says "it is possible". Yeah right, she must own a Delorean!! It would, also be interesting to know just how sick you have to be to be considered by your doctor to be too sick to give a sample for testing when you are showing symptoms

[AussieCapitalist]

Mate all I know is October 31 is election day and labor is gonna get pumped more than a Thai hooker.

[Sergeant Hartman]

Trekin, you make very good points.... the saga continues...

I was taking to a friend and apparently SA had their first case in a while. it was a returned overseas traveler. and guess what they got an exception to the 14 days quarantine.... so depends on how many people that person got in contract with.

With soo much good news that media is pumping out... the public service people are bloody morons.