A serious question.

[Sergeant Hartman]

DJ yes it did happen but in January/February now i am thinking their factories have caught up with demand... plus all PPE prices have gone crazy.

So much so, funny that people are importing masks from China to sell here for $5-20ea. Considering masks were around $1-2ea when bought in bulk last year.

[sungazer]

The buying of stuff from Australia and sending it to china is nothing new. there are heaps of Chinese students and workers here that make a very good living doing exactly that. Powdered milk, Vitamins, skin creams all sorts of stuff.

Zierge that list of things you blame china for is equally applicable to the US they are not even a signatory to the geneva convention because they want to use torture of prisoners and they do that off shore in one of their many military bases. They exploit illegal immigrants in their own country to provide labor that extends to child labour.

If your going to list all the bad things of one country you need to balance it with what happens in other countries..

[Die Judicii]

I just tried to upload an article (link) regarding the possible very first case of Covid19
But,,,, was met with "The extension html is not allowed. The upload was rejected because the uploaded file was identified as a possible attack vector"

The article refers to a woman that was working in a "wet market" in Wuhan that sells Bats, Dogs, Cats, etc etc for food.
She was diagnosed with the typical Covid19 signs and symptoms along with other work colleagues all having the same symptoms.
She was admitted to hospital, recovered, and was discharged in late January

[trekin]

I just tried to upload an article (link) regarding the possible very first case of Covid19
But,,,, was met with "The extension html is not allowed. The upload was rejected because the uploaded file was identified as a possible attack vector"

The article refers to a woman that was working in a "wet market" in Wuhan that sells Bats, Dogs, Cats, etc etc for food.
She was diagnosed with the typical Covid19 signs and symptoms along with other work colleagues all having the same symptoms.
She was admitted to hospital, recovered, and was discharged in late January

Couldn't have been the first then, because there were cases going back to at least Nov 19. Just read about a 101 year old who contracted this virus and has just been released being now fully recovered.

[Baronvonrort]

Try this-

Jan. 26, 2020

Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

As confirmed cases of a novel virus surge around the world with worrisome speed, all eyes have so far focused on a seafood market in Wuhan, China, as the origin of the outbreak. But a description of the first clinical cases published in The Lancet on Friday challenges that hypothesis.

The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. “That’s a big number, 13, with no link,” says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.

Lucey says if the new data are accurate, the first human infections must have occurred in November 2019—if not earlier—because there is an incubation time between infection and symptoms surfacing. If so, the virus possibly spread silently between people in Wuhan—and perhaps elsewhere—before the cluster of cases from the city’s now-infamous Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was discovered in late December.

“The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace,” Lucey asserts.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally#

[TassieTiger]

“The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers...” ie the Chinese govt...
Can’t and won’t trust them...

[Baronvonrort]

Current death rate from the kung flu is 17%

The number of infected people is irrelevant in calculating the death rate we don't know what their outcome will be. This number can only be calculated from closed cases where there has been an outcome which means they recovered or they died.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[TassieTiger]

The death rate will be very questionable (thankfully), due to the large numbers that are infected but not recorded which could be many many thousands - this will be especially so, where our Au numbers are relatively low in statistical comparison.

The who is still tracking towards an approx 3% fatality rate - which is still extremely high - and I guess could obviously change at any time.

These stats are all interesting but do hard to quantify until after the fact - which will be a loooong time coming...

[Baronvonrort]

“The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers...” ie the Chinese govt...
Can’t and won’t trust them...

I was reading these research papers earlier today which were translated to English by a Chinese lady in New York. They confirm the first documented victim of the Kung Flu had no contact with this wet market in Wuhan.

These papers have been saved so Chinese government cannot delete them from the internet.

The Lancet is considered reliable they published this as well my link is from 26th January.

Chinese researchers are not to be confused with government who censor what they don't like. The doctor who blew the whistle on this shows the lengths the communist regime will go to this guy is definitely one of the good guys- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51364382

[Baronvonrort]

The death rate will be very questionable (thankfully), due to the large numbers that are infected but not recorded which could be many many thousands - this will be especially so, where our Au numbers are relatively low in statistical comparison.

The who is still tracking towards an approx 3% fatality rate - which is still extremely high - and I guess could obviously change at any time.

These stats are all interesting but do hard to quantify until after the fact - which will be a loooong time coming...

There aren't many who understand how this is calculated. The number of people who haven't been tested who may have it and those who are infected is irrelevant because we don't know if they will recover or die.Until we have an outcome for these people we don't know whether they're put in the recovered or died category.

This number can only be calculated from known cases where the outcome is known which means they recovered from this virus or died. This is currently at 17% die with 83% of them recovering.

I don't consider WHO to be an authority on this they're as useless as the UN.

[TassieTiger]

One of the worry’s from what you posted above (link) - dr was tested several times and it came back negative...bloody hell. That dr knew he had it...but testing was showing negative? That’s a worry.

I’m sure there are heroes and wonderful ground based Chinese ppl in wuhan - but researchers, drs, etc if the govt comes to you and says, it would be a favourable outcome for you and your family, if your research finds something else than a patient one... it’s China, their govt calls the shots...unless I’m mislead. Which is certainly possible / but from I’ve seen, read, hear...the govt of China portrays an image not always aligned with fact.
Case in point - Do we believe that wuhan covid numbers are accurate? I don’t know the answer, I’d assume no but maybe they do have it controlled - I fail to understand how, given their huge numbers but again - China did go all in, so...?

[Sergeant Hartman]

Baron, mate what you are proposing is a very deeply flawed way to think.

Firstly that website is not a legitimate source, ie you or i can add in information... which can cause cases to be missed to doubled up.

So if you use your logic a person who wasn't tested as there wernt any tests available at that time due to shortages but had the symptoms doesn't have the crona virus (Even though they probably do)

To bring the whole circus to context, total deaths from cronavirus all over the world is less than 25,000 in 3 months. In Australia we have 3,500 cases and 14 deaths.

Total deaths from FLU last year in USA alone were 80,000+.

Last season 217,000 Australia were confirmed with flu, but probably another 100+k did have flu, but the doctor decided the patent didn't need a test for whatever reason. We had nearly 500 deaths.

Its sure brings things into context. Maybe this cronavirus is govt way to control our movements and control us

[Baronvonrort]

One of the worry’s from what you posted above (link) - dr was tested several times and it came back negative...bloody hell. That dr knew he had it...but testing was showing negative? That’s a worry.

It was early days for that Dr they had to discover what was causing it then develop a test for it. We didn't have a test for the Kung Flu on the shelf we hade to make one.

There are some good researchers in China I don't doubt the research that says the first victim had no link to the Wuhan market these papers were saved so they couldn't be deleted. This research was done before the government tried to cover this up.

I don't believe the official numbers from China or Iran are anywhere near accurate.

I have seen numbers from 1.2 million infected with around 100K dead to millions dead in China from this.

This lady has some interesting things which go against the official story from China -https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1243367546272669702

Then you have stories like this- https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-covid-19-death-toll-21-million-cell-phones-disappeared-why-41580

I think the true infection numbers and deaths in China will be unknown.

[TassieTiger]

Z - I believe they were still testing him with dedicated lab tests appropriate to the disease / s aligned with covid, the fact that they had not yet developed an easily replicated vaccine, for world wide dissemination was a bit different - labs had reportedly replicated virus in 48 hours, in house is different - I’d assume this doc had applicable access to such testing. Maybe not...maybe. We will never know.

Some of those links r quite disturbing.

Lots of ? On a lot of info, from a lot of places...

[Baronvonrort]

Baron, mate what you are proposing is a very deeply flawed way to think.

Firstly that website is not a legitimate source, ie you or i can add in information... which can cause cases to be missed to doubled up.

So if you use your logic a person who wasn't tested as there wernt any tests available at that time due to shortages but had the symptoms doesn't have the crona virus (Even though they probably do)

To bring the whole circus to context, total deaths from cronavirus all over the world is less than 25,000 in 3 months. In Australia we have 3,500 cases and 14 deaths.

Nothing flawed in my way of thinking yet I see a lot of people who don't understand how this is calculated.

In Australia we have 170 recovered + 14 dead = 184 closed cases.

Therefore in closed cases where a patient has either recovered or died we are at 7.6% death rate from the Kung Flu with closed cases right now.

The infection numbers don't count for death rate because we don't know if these people are going to recover or die their outcome is unknown. When they recover or die then their numbers are added into the closed cases in recovered or dead.

The flaw in your thinking is looking at infection numbers thinking they have some relevance when the outcome of these people is unknown.

The global death rate including dodgy numbers from China and Iran is currently 17% with Australia at 7.6% of all cases where there has been an outcome.

[Sergeant Hartman]

Mate i dunno about all the conspirasory theories.

Having lived/born in a third world country, i suppose i think i can more easily think of what actually happened. While others might try and think like a western world where everything is done the right way.

So for me i can easily see how the local govt officials didn't want to appear like fools and annoy their higher ups unnecessarily, so tried to downplay or hide the situation. Not the first time thats happened or the last time it happens. Obviously in hindsight it was the wrong decision. But thinking about it, with air travel i am 100% before the first case was even registered to local doctor the virus had already traveled to USA, Europe etc.

[TassieTiger]

I agree. I think this variant was established well before wuhan. Just my 2 cents.

I don’t agree with the numbers baron is posting - or more so, numbers are correct - but calculus is flawed in trying to reach an outcome that’s just not there yet.

I ver heard the term - a system is only as good as its data? Or maybe “sh1t in equals sh1t out?
If you really want to consider a more accurate mortality rate, you DO need to factor in the most educated guess possible, pertaining to survivors, even that will be flawed but...

[Sergeant Hartman]

You are thinking of the term GIGO, garbage in garbage out.

I have been thinking about it like everyone. the second number that i looked at is the ratio of mild cases to severe cases... which is standing at 95 to 5% (was 96/4). So of the 95% of cases the expectation is almost all will survive. We have heard of many cases where people who have mild cases of cronavirus are told to self isolate at home (tom hanks as an example).

So logic of looking at what cases have recovered vs dead is not right. They don't do that in flu or any disease i know off

[Die Judicii]

All this aside, the stuff that is eaten and called food in China is mind boggling to say the least.
Dog, Cat, Bat, Birds Nest Soup (bird sh!t)

I mean,,,,,,,,, really,,,,,,,,,, about the only thing that I've never heard of them eating is,, Human Sh!t.
But then who really knows ???

[Baronvonrort]

I don’t agree with the numbers baron is posting - or more so, numbers are correct - but calculus is flawed in trying to reach an outcome that’s just not there yet.

I ver heard the term - a system is only as good as its data? Or maybe “sh1t in equals sh1t out?
If you really want to consider a more accurate mortality rate, you DO need to factor in the most educated guess possible, pertaining to survivors, even that will be flawed but...

This has nothing to do with calculus its simple primary school mathematics in working out percentages.

There is no guessing with this closed cases show a patient has recovered or died from this virus, so far we are at 7.6% dead.

Of those who are infected we don't know if they will recover or die that is why their cases are considered open, there are only 2 options for these open cases recovery or death.

If you think our 7.6% death rate is high you might get a shock looking at the death rates from closed cases in Italy or the US.

Italy has 10,950 recovered with 9134 dead, what percentage of those closed cases results in death?
USA has 2525 recovered with 1704 dead, what percentage of those closed cases results in death?

[TassieTiger]

Your correct baron, the primary school maths your utilising is X/y graph = %.

Step up to high school mate...theres no point in utilising “medically” recovered vs deaths without considering the big picture - it’s an insane logic, with an insane outcome - that YOU know it is not real and is irresponsible scare mongering at best.
Using your X/y calculations, of those that get cancer, with a “medical outcome”...it’s posdinle to show that 90% will die...because cancers often return, people fight cancer for years...but the reality is very different.

If you think the USA fatality rate will be 10% from CV19, as you have clearly eluded above, then I’m selling a weally bwig bridge in Swidney weally cheap if your interested....

[Baronvonrort]

You are thinking of the term GIGO, garbage in garbage out.

I have been thinking about it like everyone. the second number that i looked at is the ratio of mild cases to severe cases... which is standing at 95 to 5% (was 96/4). So of the 95% of cases the expectation is almost all will survive. We have heard of many cases where people who have mild cases of cronavirus are told to self isolate at home (tom hanks as an example).

So logic of looking at what cases have recovered vs dead is not right. They don't do that in flu or any disease i know off

I am surprised how many don't understand this.

The flaw in thinking of mild cases to severe cases is every severe case starts out as a mild case.

There are only 2 options for those infected which is recovery or death until then your case is considered open as there hasn't been an outcome.

Yes Tom Hanks did recover his case would be considered closed, I don't know if he was added in closed case recovered here or in the US.
Was he at home or did the ABC tell another whopper?
Would he have said to our hospital money is no problem do whatever you can?

Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson say they are taking coronavirus isolation "one day at a time" and have thanked Queensland Health staff.
The Hollywood duo were placed in isolation on Thursday at the Gold Coast University Hospital after testing positive to COVID-19.
In a social media post, Hanks and Wilson thanked "everyone here Down Under who are taking such good care of us".
A Queensland Health spokeswoman said on Friday morning all coronavirus patients at the Gold Coast University Hospital — including Hanks and Wilson — were in a stable condition.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-13/tom-hanks-coronavirus-isolation-queensland/12053576

[TassieTiger]

Your surprised at how many don’t understand it?

Maybe, just maybe - it’s you not understanding...walks like a duck?

The only time your X/y = mortality rate is going to make sense, is after the fact...

[Baronvonrort]

Your surprised at how many don’t understand it?

Maybe, just maybe - it’s you not understanding...walks like a duck?

The only time your X/y = mortality rate is going to make sense, is after the fact...

All of my uni friends who studied maths, science,engineering and medicine understand what I am saying. Those who did arts and gender studies have some difficulty with it along with those who only went to high school and/or Tafe.

If we look at Italy where the death rate is around 45% their deaths are running around 600+ deaths a day since march 21 which is 1 week ago with 919 deaths yesterday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

The US had 401 deaths on the 27th with only 113 on the 22nd.
- COVID-19 patients average time on ventilator: 11 - 21 days (vs. 3 - 4 days for non-COVID-19 patients). "We have patients that have been 20 days 30 days on a ventilator. The longer you are on a ventilator, the more likely you are not going get off a ventilator"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Most of the world has been shut down for this reason, does anyone think the governments around the world would have shut everything down if the death rate was only 0.4% like some claim?

This virus cannot enter your home unless someone brings it into your home.

[sungazer]

So what about the cases were the virus is not confirmed as it is mild and people stay at home for two weeks then go on to get better, completely avoiding any statistics that you are proposing.

Of course you are not paying attention to any of the stats from china where it is reported that 76,000 people have recovered and only 3,300 people have died.

All the BS that you are purporting about China is mostly BS there are a huge number of foreigners that are in china and can report back to people in their own country. Their are Australians still in Whuhan there are heaps of Chinese from Malaysia that set up companies in china for manufacturing, Chin ease from all over the world have moved back there to start up businesses. Of course there will be some under reporting but the numbers you are talking about are fiction they would be noticed. China has a very smart young population many educated abroad they are not indoctrinated quite the opposite the young university and ex uni students are very inquiring minds.

[Stix]

LMAO...!!!

Thats Gold...

Filter everyones blood through his veins & we'll all be cured...!!!...

[Sergeant Hartman]

Hmm maybe your friends started uni last year....or they like me Just give up arguing with you as you are not willing to listen or understand.

What about Australia 170 recovered and 14 decreased. Looks like Australia has 7% deaths....but you just said Italy has 45% What is our government hiding?

If you look at UK numbers, according to your logic seeing 735 dead and 135 recovered, means for every 7 pepple 6 will die.

You see the dumb in your logic?

[Blr243]

30 yrs ago we all thought that it was amazing that Keith was still here, now we just accept it and expect that he’ll be here forever. But one day I found out why..... it’s because of all the blood transfusions he is always haveing. Remembering that our bodies are mostly water , and that blood is made mostly of water , So after all this time Keith is no longer Keith , on the inside he’s a thousand different strong Young men ... the whiskey breath, stench of cigarettes and pale corpse like external skin is the only original part of Keith that remains ......and who amongst us now would dare prefer he sauntered onto the stage looking any different

[Baronvonrort]

So what about the cases were the virus is not confirmed as it is mild and people stay at home for two weeks then go on to get better, completely avoiding any statistics that you are proposing.

Of course you are not paying attention to any of the stats from china where it is reported that 76,000 people have recovered and only 3,300 people have died.

All the BS that you are purporting about China is mostly BS there are a huge number of foreigners that are in china and can report back to people in their own country. Their are Australians still in Whuhan there are heaps of Chinese from Malaysia that set up companies in china for manufacturing, Chin ease from all over the world have moved back there to start up businesses. Of course there will be some under reporting but the numbers you are talking about are fiction they would be noticed. China has a very smart young population many educated abroad they are not indoctrinated quite the opposite the young university and ex uni students are very inquiring minds.

How do we know those with mild cases actually had Covid-19 and not something else like the common flu if they don't get tested? Relaible statistics don't include suspected cases they rely on confirmed cases.

I have a Cuban cigar every now and then sometimes it gives me a sore throat with a cough yet I never thought to think of that as a symptom of the Kung Flu as it clears up pretty quickly

I think if someone suspected they had the Kung Flu they would be making an appointment to get tested.

I don't believe the official stats from China or Iran on this. I have a few sources from China and Iran who show with video evidence things are much worse than claimed by their governments. I did see an official sign translated by a Chinese friend showing 500,000 urns waiting to be picked up from recently cremated people. I asked him about a line of people outside a hospital he said they were going in for voluntary cremation..

[TassieTiger]

You you cannot make an appointment to get tested - as previous, the criteria is pretty darn tight regardless of symptoms.

You can bOunce figures around until your blue but mate, they are totally meaningless - if a 10% fatality rate was imminent as you’ve suggested or USA - ppl would be in more than lockdown lol.

In fact, your actually highlighting the exact issue encountered by real world ppl vs uni students who know it all by theory...

There are 3650 cases in AU with 14 deaths...of those 3650, only 12 are reported apparently as serious, so heaven forbid, they pass - that equates to 26 deaths vs 3650 cases = 0.7%