A serious question.

[TassieTiger]

DJ. There’s no name calling, it’s thus far been a decent debate, free from gutter calling like many other banned threads, and it’s over a current and leading matter...and besides, Bazzas wrong lol lol lol. Well not wrong, just...misguided.
Here’s proof.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.bus ... 2020-3/amp

This is how the REST of the world is calculating death rate, but for some reason, Baz is focusing on something very very different.

[Baronvonrort]

DJ. There’s no name calling, it’s thus far been a decent debate, free from gutter calling like many other banned threads, and it’s over a current and leading matter...and besides, Bazzas wrong lol lol lol. Well not wrong, just...misguided.
Here’s proof.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.bus ... 2020-3/amp

This is how the REST of the world is calculating death rate, but for some reason, Baz is focusing on something very very different.

Well you found something on the internet it must be right because you think those journalists and everyone who agrees with you on this are right despite the fact they're actually wrong in calculating this.Like I said it's amazing how many get this wrong.

I will just cite a little bit I think the mathematics here in dealing with something like this is beyond most if not all of you. take note of the source and the topic with calculating something like this which they use SARS another Coronavirus as the example

Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease

Abstract

During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China.

The epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 showed how rapidly new infectious diseases can spread. Within a month of its recognition, SARS had spread worldwide, with epidemics occurring in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, and Canada (1). Although the worldwide case incidence remained relatively low (8,098 cases), relatively high mortality (774 deaths) resulted in widespread concern and alarm, sometimes to the point of panic, in the populations affected (2, 3). Coupled with the economic costs resulting from restriction of movement placed on the affected countries (4), the epidemic highlighted the need for a rapid international response to disease control. More recently, the outbreak of H5N1 influenza in birds in southeast Asia has again reinforced the potential for pandemic spread of newly emerging or evolving infectious agents.

During an outbreak of a novel or emerging infectious agent such as SARS, one of the most important epidemiologic quantities to be determined is the case fatality ratio—the proportion of cases who eventually die from the disease.

This ratio is often estimated by using aggregate numbers of cases and deaths at a single time point, such as those compiled daily by the World Health Organization during the course of the SARS epidemic (5).
However, simple estimates of the case fatality ratio obtained from these reports can be misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a nonnegligible proportion of patients.

In this paper, we show how to estimate the case fatality ratio during the course of an epidemic by adapting the Kaplan-Meier method for use with two outcomes—death and recovery.

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647

Does this say using numbers from an aggregate number of cases and deaths can be misleading if at the time of analysis the outcome is unknown for a nonnegligible proportion of patients?

Does it suggest when the outcome is unknown for a nonnegligible proportion of patients then another method is required like the Kaplan-Meier method using 2 outcomes death and recovery?

With 3451 current open cases with 23 in a serious or critical condition and 3428 in a mild condition with unknown outcomes it's fair to say that is a nonnegligible proportion of patients when we have 14 deaths with 170 recovered.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

For those who don't understand the maths in my link just look at closed cases with an outcome around the world which are death and recovery, for those who can do the maths they will realise why NY is bringing in refrigerated trucks for temporary morgues and other countries are converting ice skating venues for temporary morgues.

If the patient lasts 3 weeks after being diagnosed without being intubated or put on a ventilator the chances of recovery are good. this virus infects your lungs when they intubate and put you on a ventilator it's probably going to result in death.

We had 450 new cases today this time next week we will probably be over 5000 cases, the numbers of those in a serious or critical condition will not decline they will increase yet numbers of recovered and dead will.

I can agree to disagree there is no point arguing on the internet people either get it or they don't

[TassieTiger]

So let me get this right - I’ve found on the internet, an article supporting a well established, generally and widely accepted method of calculating a death ratio associated with a pandemic, one that is aligned with the WORLD Health Organisation, the worlds media and worlds govts and because it doesn’t align with your thinking - then it’s apparently wrong... but you’ve found a left of field “internet” paper, that because it has found by you and meets your criteria - it’s correct? Can you see how crazy that is? So in your opinion, your saying journalists, the WHO, govt ststicisns, etc “don’t get it”?

your sighting that our cases will increase, probably over 5000 by next week, the number of serious cases will increase - but you are completely ignoring the ever increasing positive results of those ppl that will be fine...?

Okay. So ill play the game.
You’ve nominated that if people last over 3 weeks with this virus, then chances of recovery are good. Something that’s been pretty well established.

So given what we all know Re recent no’s, predictive numbers, etc There’s clearly a mathematical equation to estimate fatalities, So -what’s your prediction for % death rate in au next week?

[Sergeant Hartman]

Baron you haven't explained the abnormality that i found. Can you explain that please i am waiting to learn from you

[Baronvonrort]

So let me get this right - I’ve found on the internet, an article supporting a well established, generally and widely accepted method of calculating a death ratio associated with a pandemic, one that is aligned with the WORLD Health Organisation, the worlds media and worlds govts and because it doesn’t align with your thinking - then it’s apparently wrong... but you’ve found a left of field “internet” paper, that because it has found by you and meets your criteria - it’s correct? Can you see how crazy that is? So in your opinion, your saying journalists, the WHO, govt ststicisns, etc “don’t get it”?

your sighting that our cases will increase, probably over 5000 by next week, the number of serious cases will increase - but you are completely ignoring the ever increasing positive results of those ppl that will be fine...?

Okay. So ill play the game.
You’ve nominated that if people last over 3 weeks with this virus, then chances of recovery are good. Something that’s been pretty well established.

So given what we all know Re recent no’s, predictive numbers, etc There’s clearly a mathematical equation to estimate fatalities, So -what’s your prediction for % death rate in au next week?

Yes it is wrong to calculate death rate by number of infected vs deaths with a large number of unresolved cases that will give you a misleading result because those who calculate it this way are assuming every one of those open cases will recover with no increase in deaths. Do you understand the flaw in calculating this way which is assuming every single infected case will recover?

I am surprised how many cannot understand this and get it wrong while insisting they're right, we have a huge number of open cases with infected we don't know what the outcome for them will be to assume they will all recover is wrong when the evidence clearly shows that will not be the case.

We don't know what the result will be for the open cases it gets very complicated trying to predict the outcome for them. The closed cases when outcome is known with recovery or death give a much clearer picture and can be calculated easily by recovery or death for those infected in closed cases.

As for our death rate I predict it will rise from the current 7.6% next week and get even bigger the week after.

I would suggest the government experts have right advice that is why we're in lockdown around the world they don't follow the dodgy methods that many assume is right in coming up with their much smaller number for death rate because they saw it on the internet.

As for WHO they're as bad if not more useless than the UN..

[TassieTiger]

Baron - given your modelling, and the fact ppl don’t “recover” what’s the death rate for AIDS patients ? Surely, you have to conclude its 100% under your modelling?
Same with every disease where people don’t fully recover??

[Sergeant Hartman]

And look at the picture.... You have written off WHO for a post on the 14th of January....ffs in cronavirus land that could be equivalent to stone ages.

Btw you still haven't answered my question.

But what is ace receptor? Can you explain whiteout looking at Google

[Bill]

I know the ace receptor is what smokers damage, hence why anyone who currently smokes is PHARKEDD.

[Stix]

I know the ace receptor is what smokers damage, hence why anyone who currently smokes is PHARKEDD.

What about ex smokers Bill...?

[Bill]

depends on how long you stopped smoking and how much cumulative damage thats occurred.

Generally speaking a smoker lungs can somewhat recover but you never regain the capacity of a similar aged person, think like add 10yrs, so if you were 50 and you stopped, even when your lungs repair there capacity is more like a 60yr old.

If your still smoking and you get the virus, the effects are gunna be much worse due to the damage to the ace receptors which is what Covid 19 also attacks.

If anyone is a smoker I would seriously suggest you wake the phark up and stop immediately

[Sergeant Hartman]

Shh the question was for the expert baron.

This might also explain why Italy has such high death rates... more people smoke more often in Europe in general

[Ziege]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fqn5UtA ... pp=desktop

Thought this might interest a few straight white male included

[Stix]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fqn5UtAkBL0&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop

Thought this might interest a few straight white male included

Well i gave it the time.

Im glad i havent completely lost the ability to think for myself & look at things objectively.

With that in mind, a point of note...this "Anonymous", is just that...what are they afraid of that they have to remain as named.

Also, what is the most amusing about that video, is that they appear to use the very same fear tactics they accuse "The Elite" of, who are allegedly controlling us...but they are using this fear in a considerably more intense & concentrated manner...

Hhmmm...

[poid]

Baron, numbers tell a story but you need to understand the numbers before you try and tell that story.

So here's the issue:

- confirmed cases: a data point which is marked by a positive test result. That is, ignored manipulation by the likes of China, a pretty reliable data point
- confirmed deaths: again, a data point that is marked by a specific event, the death of an individual. Same applies as above.
- recovered: from the John Hopkins site: "Recovered cases outside China are estimates based on local media reports, and may be substantially lower than the true number."

This is why there is a disconnect between the figure you calculate, and the estimated mortality rate which is published. It is more difficult to obtain the number recovered, because there is no event that declares someone to be recovered aside from another test. This would be typically be administered for more serious patients, but not for patients with mild symptoms. The estimated rate is an attempt to use the known characteristics of the virus to come up with the long-term mortality rate across a population that we will observe once this all washes out.

Or another way of looking at it, you're seeing a 17% mortality rate based on the recovered estimate and let's say that is the more serious cases per the logic above. The typical number of more serious cases is suggested to be 15-20%; 17% of 15-20% is about 2.5% to 3.5% overall mortality.

So it's not as straightforward as the 17% figure, nor the 3% figure. There is still a lot of noise to work through.

[Sergeant Hartman]

Yep... and that's why there are people with a lot of experience compiling the information all over the world. Probably best to listen to them

Anyway TFE and baron are probably set in their ways and will keep thinking their way is correct.

[trekin]

I know the ace receptor is what smokers damage, hence why anyone who currently smokes is PHARKEDD.

A little bit of fear mongering hey. Have had rheumatic fever as a baby, back in the days when this killed 7 out of 10 babies, had pneumonia in my mid 20,s, that had me on a morgue slab, under the aircon outlet, packed in ice for 12 hours, worked 13 years in coal mines back when PPE's weren't for real coal miners, have smoked for the last 43 years, and had this virus back in January.

[Stix]

You're quite literate for a zombie trekkin.

Better stay indoors though...a good few of us have plenty of Zmax left...

[Ziege]

Dude I could swap the word china with america and you still wouldnt make any sense

Throw away comment if ever I read one,

See you can't interchange those, communism for example, spate of virtual respiratory diseases as well, concentration camps also.

You have also used the logical fallacy of comparing what you think is s**t to s**t to try and make the first pile of s**t seem less like s**t, if you truly believe America is no different then what are you achieving by making that comparison? It's still a pile of s**t and to someone not naive to such a weak argument method just reinforces their original point.

So in short thanks for agreeing that China should pay reparations and be held in the upmost contempt over this catastrophic event.

[trekin]

You're quite literate for a zombie trekkin.

Better stay indoors though...a good few of us have plenty of Zmax left...

No worries there, mate, I fully intend to be around to tell my great grandchildren stories of how some people throught that their perceived right to freely wander around spreading this pox was more important than rights of those they infected to live.

[Ziege]

You're the one who is not willing to listen or understand you keep trying to fudge the numbers with people where the outcome is unknown for them then slag off anyone who doesn't follow your flawed logic.

I don't think our government is hiding anything on confirmed cases or deaths here, I think our death rate will increase over the next few weeks how high it goes I don't know it's still early days.

85% death rate in the UK for Kung Flu cases where outcome is known with only 15% recovery. How many of the other 13,649 diagnosed cases will recover or die we don't know.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

This virus doesn't kill people overnight it takes a few weeks, 3 weeks ago none of us would have predicted this worldwide lockdown we're currently in.

There are no flaws in my logic can you see the flaws in your logic which I have pointed out?

Well a true number is actually impossible to get due to the severe lack of proper testing, there aren't enough tests and professionals to carry them out, so the real numbers can't and won't be known so that is going to make you all inaccurate for now

[TassieTiger]

Hey trek - don’t slide your last name is Richards? Got a brother called Keith?
You sound like my grand father - used to sleep next to the camp fire over night, wake up with frost on his head, had most of your diseases, had half a dozen shot gun pellets in him, would drink beer for breakfast lunch and dinner - the absolute salt of the earth. Stay safe mate. This s**t is real.

[trekin]

Well a true number is actually impossible to get due to the severe lack of proper testing, there aren't enough tests and professionals to carry them out, so the real numbers can't and won't be known so that is going to make you all inaccurate for now

And add to that the fact that it had spread to most countries well before the first confirmed cases outside of China.

[marksman]

Well a true number is actually impossible to get due to the severe lack of proper testing, there aren't enough tests and professionals to carry them out, so the real numbers can't and won't be known so that is going to make you all inaccurate for now

l agree totally
its not worth the argument if the numbers cannot be true, all the figures are fudged no matters where they come from

[trekin]

Hey trek - don’t slide your last name is Richards? Got a brother called Keith?
You sound like my grand father - used to sleep next to the camp fire over night, wake up with frost on his head, had most of your diseases, had half a dozen shot gun pellets in him, would drink beer for breakfast lunch and dinner - the absolute salt of the earth. Stay safe mate. This s**t is real.

Taz, that's just the medical history relevant to the Bill's comment, plenty more, and don't start me on physical injuries, twice fractured neck, crushed lower spine, stab wounds, perforated ear drums from being caught out to close to a couple hundred tonnes of ANFO going up etc etc ......you get the drift.

[Bill]

A little bit of fear mongering hey. Have had rheumatic fever as a baby, back in the days when this killed 7 out of 10 babies, had pneumonia in my mid 20,s, that had me on a morgue slab, under the aircon outlet, packed in ice for 12 hours, worked 13 years in coal mines back when PPE's weren't for real coal miners, have smoked for the last 43 years, and had this virus back in January.

Trekin I work in operating theatres almost daily and my brother and his partner are both Gen surgeons, so I've a fair idea on the current situation in regards to what the effects will be on different parts of the community, and as for claiming youve already had the Covid 19 flu back in January you might want to research the first known case in Australia.

I wish you all the best in getting thru to the other side of the pandemic, the affects for smokers can be upto 3 times worse.

[TassieTiger]

So, smokers are impacted more, aged ppl, over weight ppl, those who have had cancer, poor immune systems, previous lung issues, recent surgeries, aids patients, previous respiratory illness, those with a limp, those with an eye brow lower than the other - Bill. In the words of the great Kenny toilet man - You are absolutely full of it,
You’re reaching into existing information to somehow try and make yourself relevant.
Even top end professionals are still unsure wtf this virus is / effects / etc. most virologists are more worried than they are letting on because of the lack of consistency in lab testing....

[trekin]

Trekin I work in operating theatres almost daily and my brother and his partner are both Gen surgeons, so I've a fair idea on the current situation in regards to what the effects will be on different parts of the community, and as for claiming youve already had the Covid 19 flu back in January you might want to research the first known case in Australia.

I wish you all the best in getting thru to the other side of the pandemic, the affects for smokers can be upto 3 times worse.

The first known case in Aus was detected only after they had knowledge of, and the tests to detect it. Can you, or any one else, unequivocally discount that, I or hundreds of other QLDER's who suffered the same symptoms back in Dec/Jan, test results that showed an "unkown " virus, or in some cases, an "unkown" sister virus to the flu didn't have what is now known as covid19? Not even my own brother, one of Aus leading medical pathologists can tell me that without getting his hands on one of those finger prick tests from England. It was so prevalent in my area that the local doctors coined their own name for it, the Blackwater virus.
Yes, it could hit smokers up to 3 times worse, but that's a long way from your statement that "anyone who currently smokes is PHARKEDD."

[Bill]

Ahh Trekin you'll get your chance to convince us all when you get tested very shortly for antibodies from Covid 19. Let us all know the results.

[Baronvonrort]

Yep... and that's why there are people with a lot of experience compiling the information all over the world. Probably best to listen to them

Anyway TFE and baron are probably set in their ways and will keep thinking their way is correct.

A lot of people once believed the earth was flat that didn't make it true. Argumentum ad populum is a logical fallacy.

"In argumentation theory, an argumentum ad populum (Latin for "appeal to the people"[1]) is a fallacious argument that concludes that a proposition must be true because many or most people believe it, often concisely encapsulated as: "If many believe so, it is so".[citation needed]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum

Doctors make mistakes the number of deaths from medical errors every year is evidence of this, as the saying goes doctors bury their mistakes.
I had 10 doctors who misdiagnosed my neck pain, the 11th doctor got it right after I insisted on a MRI scan which revealed discs damaged. The doctors were 0 from 10 in giving me the correct diagnosis before I insisted on MRI scan.

The serious flaw just about every one makes with this is comparing infection numbers to deaths to derive their number. Doing it this way is assuming everyone will recover with no increase in deaths which we know cannot be true.

The only effective way to get a number on what is happening is to look at closed cases where there has been an outcome which is recovery or death. We cannot predict what will happen with those who are infected and haven't recovered or died yet looking at the numbers it shows it isn't going to be good for many of them. The UK was around 80% death rate, Italy around 45% and the US around 40%. Not many smokers in NY compared to Italy.

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution

Publication Date: 07.02.2020
Swiss Med Wkly. 2020;150:w20203

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude.

Diagnosis of viral infection will precede recovery or death by days to weeks and the number of deaths should therefore be compared to the past case counts
https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

What does this medical publication mean with doing it your way could be out by orders of magnitude?

[trekin]

Ahh Trekin you'll get your chance to convince us all when you get tested very shortly for antibodies from Covid 19. Let us all know the results.

I await the day that I can find out for sure. Hopefully it was, at least my blood could then be used to make a serum to treat the at risk, or help in the development of a vaccine, but I fear that until Aus follows England and America and recognise that this virus was brought here earlier then they say, that day is still a long way off.