A serious question.

[trekin]

You're quite literate for a zombie trekkin.

Better stay indoors though...a good few of us have plenty of Zmax left...

No worries there, mate, I fully intend to be around to tell my great grandchildren stories of how some people throught that their perceived right to freely wander around spreading this pox was more important than rights of those they infected to live.

[Ziege]

You're the one who is not willing to listen or understand you keep trying to fudge the numbers with people where the outcome is unknown for them then slag off anyone who doesn't follow your flawed logic.

I don't think our government is hiding anything on confirmed cases or deaths here, I think our death rate will increase over the next few weeks how high it goes I don't know it's still early days.

85% death rate in the UK for Kung Flu cases where outcome is known with only 15% recovery. How many of the other 13,649 diagnosed cases will recover or die we don't know.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

This virus doesn't kill people overnight it takes a few weeks, 3 weeks ago none of us would have predicted this worldwide lockdown we're currently in.

There are no flaws in my logic can you see the flaws in your logic which I have pointed out?

Well a true number is actually impossible to get due to the severe lack of proper testing, there aren't enough tests and professionals to carry them out, so the real numbers can't and won't be known so that is going to make you all inaccurate for now

[TassieTiger]

Hey trek - don’t slide your last name is Richards? Got a brother called Keith?
You sound like my grand father - used to sleep next to the camp fire over night, wake up with frost on his head, had most of your diseases, had half a dozen shot gun pellets in him, would drink beer for breakfast lunch and dinner - the absolute salt of the earth. Stay safe mate. This s**t is real.

[trekin]

Well a true number is actually impossible to get due to the severe lack of proper testing, there aren't enough tests and professionals to carry them out, so the real numbers can't and won't be known so that is going to make you all inaccurate for now

And add to that the fact that it had spread to most countries well before the first confirmed cases outside of China.

[marksman]

Well a true number is actually impossible to get due to the severe lack of proper testing, there aren't enough tests and professionals to carry them out, so the real numbers can't and won't be known so that is going to make you all inaccurate for now

l agree totally
its not worth the argument if the numbers cannot be true, all the figures are fudged no matters where they come from

[trekin]

Hey trek - don’t slide your last name is Richards? Got a brother called Keith?
You sound like my grand father - used to sleep next to the camp fire over night, wake up with frost on his head, had most of your diseases, had half a dozen shot gun pellets in him, would drink beer for breakfast lunch and dinner - the absolute salt of the earth. Stay safe mate. This s**t is real.

Taz, that's just the medical history relevant to the Bill's comment, plenty more, and don't start me on physical injuries, twice fractured neck, crushed lower spine, stab wounds, perforated ear drums from being caught out to close to a couple hundred tonnes of ANFO going up etc etc ......you get the drift.

[Bill]

A little bit of fear mongering hey. Have had rheumatic fever as a baby, back in the days when this killed 7 out of 10 babies, had pneumonia in my mid 20,s, that had me on a morgue slab, under the aircon outlet, packed in ice for 12 hours, worked 13 years in coal mines back when PPE's weren't for real coal miners, have smoked for the last 43 years, and had this virus back in January.

Trekin I work in operating theatres almost daily and my brother and his partner are both Gen surgeons, so I've a fair idea on the current situation in regards to what the effects will be on different parts of the community, and as for claiming youve already had the Covid 19 flu back in January you might want to research the first known case in Australia.

I wish you all the best in getting thru to the other side of the pandemic, the affects for smokers can be upto 3 times worse.

[TassieTiger]

So, smokers are impacted more, aged ppl, over weight ppl, those who have had cancer, poor immune systems, previous lung issues, recent surgeries, aids patients, previous respiratory illness, those with a limp, those with an eye brow lower than the other - Bill. In the words of the great Kenny toilet man - You are absolutely full of it,
You’re reaching into existing information to somehow try and make yourself relevant.
Even top end professionals are still unsure wtf this virus is / effects / etc. most virologists are more worried than they are letting on because of the lack of consistency in lab testing....

[trekin]

Trekin I work in operating theatres almost daily and my brother and his partner are both Gen surgeons, so I've a fair idea on the current situation in regards to what the effects will be on different parts of the community, and as for claiming youve already had the Covid 19 flu back in January you might want to research the first known case in Australia.

I wish you all the best in getting thru to the other side of the pandemic, the affects for smokers can be upto 3 times worse.

The first known case in Aus was detected only after they had knowledge of, and the tests to detect it. Can you, or any one else, unequivocally discount that, I or hundreds of other QLDER's who suffered the same symptoms back in Dec/Jan, test results that showed an "unkown " virus, or in some cases, an "unkown" sister virus to the flu didn't have what is now known as covid19? Not even my own brother, one of Aus leading medical pathologists can tell me that without getting his hands on one of those finger prick tests from England. It was so prevalent in my area that the local doctors coined their own name for it, the Blackwater virus.
Yes, it could hit smokers up to 3 times worse, but that's a long way from your statement that "anyone who currently smokes is PHARKEDD."

[Bill]

Ahh Trekin you'll get your chance to convince us all when you get tested very shortly for antibodies from Covid 19. Let us all know the results.

[Baronvonrort]

Yep... and that's why there are people with a lot of experience compiling the information all over the world. Probably best to listen to them

Anyway TFE and baron are probably set in their ways and will keep thinking their way is correct.

A lot of people once believed the earth was flat that didn't make it true. Argumentum ad populum is a logical fallacy.

"In argumentation theory, an argumentum ad populum (Latin for "appeal to the people"[1]) is a fallacious argument that concludes that a proposition must be true because many or most people believe it, often concisely encapsulated as: "If many believe so, it is so".[citation needed]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum

Doctors make mistakes the number of deaths from medical errors every year is evidence of this, as the saying goes doctors bury their mistakes.
I had 10 doctors who misdiagnosed my neck pain, the 11th doctor got it right after I insisted on a MRI scan which revealed discs damaged. The doctors were 0 from 10 in giving me the correct diagnosis before I insisted on MRI scan.

The serious flaw just about every one makes with this is comparing infection numbers to deaths to derive their number. Doing it this way is assuming everyone will recover with no increase in deaths which we know cannot be true.

The only effective way to get a number on what is happening is to look at closed cases where there has been an outcome which is recovery or death. We cannot predict what will happen with those who are infected and haven't recovered or died yet looking at the numbers it shows it isn't going to be good for many of them. The UK was around 80% death rate, Italy around 45% and the US around 40%. Not many smokers in NY compared to Italy.

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution

Publication Date: 07.02.2020
Swiss Med Wkly. 2020;150:w20203

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude.

Diagnosis of viral infection will precede recovery or death by days to weeks and the number of deaths should therefore be compared to the past case counts
https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

What does this medical publication mean with doing it your way could be out by orders of magnitude?

[trekin]

Ahh Trekin you'll get your chance to convince us all when you get tested very shortly for antibodies from Covid 19. Let us all know the results.

I await the day that I can find out for sure. Hopefully it was, at least my blood could then be used to make a serum to treat the at risk, or help in the development of a vaccine, but I fear that until Aus follows England and America and recognise that this virus was brought here earlier then they say, that day is still a long way off.

[Baronvonrort]

[

The first known case in Aus was detected only after they had knowledge of, and the tests to detect it. Can you, or any one else, unequivocally discount that, I or hundreds of other QLDER's who suffered the same symptoms back in Dec/Jan

I doubt the Kung Flu was here in Dec when the earliest recorded case was !st Dec in China.

The onset of symptoms start around 2 weeks after being infected.

I posted this before perhaps some don't read it perhaps some don't comprehend it.

Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally#

[Baronvonrort]

And add to that the fact that it had spread to most countries well before the first confirmed cases outside of China.

5 million people flew out of Hubei in China just after the Chinese new year which by numbers is the biggest event in the world, those jetsetting tourists spread it all around the world.

The timing of the Chinese new year and this outbreak was unfortunate for the rest of the world.

[Ziege]

[quote="Baronvonrort"

I doubt the Kung Flu was here in Dec when the earliest recorded case was !st Dec in China.

The onset of symptoms start around 2 weeks after being infected.

I posted this before perhaps some don't read it perhaps some don't comprehend it.

Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally#

[/quote]


Earliest cases were not in December... Whoever gave you that information must be a CCP loyal

[Baronvonrort]

Baron, numbers tell a story but you need to understand the numbers before you try and tell that story.

So here's the issue:

- confirmed cases: a data point which is marked by a positive test result. That is, ignored manipulation by the likes of China, a pretty reliable data point
- confirmed deaths: again, a data point that is marked by a specific event, the death of an individual. Same applies as above.
- recovered: from the John Hopkins site: "Recovered cases outside China are estimates based on local media reports, and may be substantially lower than the true number."

This is why there is a disconnect between the figure you calculate, and the estimated mortality rate which is published. It is more difficult to obtain the number recovered, because there is no event that declares someone to be recovered aside from another test. This would be typically be administered for more serious patients, but not for patients with mild symptoms. The estimated rate is an attempt to use the known characteristics of the virus to come up with the long-term mortality rate across a population that we will observe once this all washes out.

Or another way of looking at it, you're seeing a 17% mortality rate based on the recovered estimate and let's say that is the more serious cases per the logic above. The typical number of more serious cases is suggested to be 15-20%; 17% of 15-20% is about 2.5% to 3.5% overall mortality.

So it's not as straightforward as the 17% figure, nor the 3% figure. There is still a lot of noise to work through.

I agree the numbers coming out of China and Iran aren't accurate I don't trust those government who have been caught telling lies. The numbers of infected coming from Indonesia are probably not reliable as well for many reasons.I think the data coming from many 3rd world countries will be seriously underestimated.

The true figure for deaths is probably well over 20% when you look at Italy, the UK, US and Spain which would be giving reliable figures.

We are currently at 7% with increases of infected to 4163, 28 critical which has increased , 244 recovered and 17 deaths both increased.

With closed cases they would test them for virus before declaring they have recovered they would have no symptoms which is why they say closed case. Death is the other possible outcome which also closes that case.Closed cases are the only accurate numbers we have at this time for outcome as those numbers are known.

It takes a couple of weeks from being diagnosed before people become serious or critical those so we have to wait to see how they progress. We will see far more becoming critical over the next few weeks with deaths increasing.

[Ziege]

The point you're missing that people are making is that the rate of infection isn't known, you're also missing that the over all rate of death attributed to the virus or subsequent pneumonia is small in comparison to the population, whereas it varies greatly depending on data, none of which is reliable at the moment, on what mortality rate there is for those infected

[Ziege]

The point you're missing that people are making is that the rate of infection isn't known, you're also missing that the over all rate of death attributed to the virus or subsequent pneumonia is small in comparison to the population, whereas it varies greatly depending on data, none of which is reliable at the moment, on what mortality rate there is for those infected

[trekin]

[quote="Baronvonrort"]The first known case in Aus was detected only after they had knowledge of, and the tests to detect it. Can you, or any one else, unequivocally discount that, I or hundreds of other QLDER's who suffered the same symptoms back in Dec/Jan

I doubt the Kung Flu was here in Dec when the earliest recorded case was !st Dec in China.

The onset of symptoms start around 2 weeks after being infected.

I posted this before perhaps some don't read it perhaps some don't comprehend it.[quote]
So by your link the first case would have been infected in November 19, patient is contagious 2 days before showing symptoms, leaves plenty of time for this virus to spread to tourists coming to Aus from the Wuhan Provenance by the end of the month. Also enough time to infect workers at a factory that made coal wagons for Aurizon rail, which a Delegation of Chinese engineers, factory officials and Party minders handed over at the Jilalan workshops at the beginning of Jan, all of which, also, came from Wuhan.

[Baronvonrort]

Earliest cases were not in December... Whoever gave you that information must be a CCP loyal

Did you comprehend this bit from my link?

Does this link question the contradicting reports from China?

I don't know why I bother sometimes if people don't read my links or even worse fail to comprehend them then accuse me of being a CCP loyal when I have never given any indication of supporting the official story on this virus and how it started.

Is The Lancet a CCP group?

The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state.

Earlier reports from Chinese health authorities and the World Health Organization had said the first patient had onset of symptoms on 8 December 2019—and those reports simply said “most” cases had links to the seafood market, which was closed on 1 January.

The Lancet paper’s data also raise questions about the accuracy of the initial information China provided, Lucey says. At the beginning of the outbreak, the main official source of public information were notices from the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Its notices on 11 January started to refer to the 41 patients as the only confirmed cases and the count remained the same until 18 January. The notices did not state that the seafood market was the source, but they repeatedly noted that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission and that most cases linked to the market. Because the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission noted that diagnostic tests had confirmed these 41 cases by 10 January and officials presumably knew the case histories of each patient, “China must have realized the epidemic did not originate in that Wuhan Huanan seafood market,” Lucey tells ScienceInsider.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally#

[Baronvonrort]

So by your link the first case would have been infected in November 19, patient is contagious 2 days before showing symptoms, leaves plenty of time for this virus to spread to tourists coming to Aus from the Wuhan Provenance by the end of the month. Also enough time to infect workers at a factory that made coal wagons for Aurizon rail, which a Delegation of Chinese engineers, factory officials and Party minders handed over at the Jilalan workshops at the beginning of Jan, all of which, also, came from Wuhan.

Yes first case would have been infected around mid Nov in Wuhan area.

First recorded case in Australia-

January 25, 2020

A Chinese national visiting Melbourne has become the country’s first confirmed case of deadly coronavirus as the disease spreads across Australia, with four people infected by late yesterday.

A Chinese man in his 50s was Australia's first confirmed case of the deadly infection, after arriving in Melbourne on a flight from Guangzhou on January 19.

He is being treated at Monash Medical Centre in Clayton after arriving in Melbourne at 9am on January 19 on China Southern Airlines flight CZ321 from Guangzhou.

He displayed no symptoms on the flight to Melbourne, Ms Mikakos said.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-victoria-20200125-p53unk.html

[Bill]

Here is the complete timeline of infections for QLD,

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-28/ ... d/12077602

[TassieTiger]

“I don't know why I bother sometimes if people don't read my links or even worse fail to comprehend them then accuse me of being a CCP loyal when I have never given any indication of supporting the official story on this virus and how it started.

Is The Lancet a CCP group?

Baron, I’ll ask one last time - using your death rate calculations your applying to CV, You’ve said, that you can only use concluded cases vs death - but AIDS doesn’t conclude without eventual death? SO, you then have to conclude that the disease AIDS has a 100% death rate? MS would be the same...as would many, many other diseases...
Maybe this is why ppl aren’t paying as much attention to your posts as you’d like...

[Baronvonrort]

Baron, I’ll ask one last time - using your death rate calculations your applying to CV, You’ve said, that you can only use concluded cases vs death - but AIDS doesn’t conclude without eventual death? SO, you then have to conclude that the disease AIDS has a 100% death rate? MS would be the same...as would many, many other diseases...
Maybe this is why ppl aren’t paying as much attention to your posts as you’d like...

It's not my death rate calculations what did the medical links I provided say about this?

I don't see the relevance with aids to this apart from I suspect HIV vaccine is why they were experimenting with corona virus

We can say the outcome for those with aids is a lot better today than it was 20 or even 30 years ago. why is that?

What was the expected outcome for those with aids 30 years ago?

Sorry for not replying earlier I have more interesting things to do.

[Baronvonrort]

Here is the complete timeline of infections for QLD,

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-28/ ... d/12077602

So unlikely the Kung Flu was there in Nov as claimed.

Be interesting to see where the big clusters are in Qld, if it was there earlier as claimed the numbers near Sarina would be interesting

[TassieTiger]

I seriously give up Baron...
In one thread your stating - not linking - you, personally are stating that The CV death rate is calculated via deaths vs closed cases “only” for this disease...99% of others, here and around the world disagree with you and you say that we are all dumb for not understanding your position.
I then - in an attempt to try and get you to see how stupid your calcs are - ask for a disease by disease comparison calculation and you dismiss it as irrelevant. Go back to uni man, where you can sit in your bubble and pretend that you know everything.

[Baronvonrort]

I seriously give up Baron...
In one thread your stating - not linking - you, personally are stating that The CV death rate is calculated via deaths vs closed cases “only” for this disease...99% of others, here and around the world disagree with you and you say that we are all dumb for not understanding your position.
I then - in an attempt to try and get you to see how stupid your calcs are - ask for a disease by disease comparison calculation and you dismiss it as irrelevant. Go back to uni man, where you can sit in your bubble and pretend that you know everything.

You didn't answer my questions on the outcome for people with aids 20-30 years ago and today so why is the outcome different for them over time? Did aids kill 100% of victims 30 years ago? 20 years ago? today? Is that the comparison you wanted?

It is calculated this way because there is a lag from onset of symptoms to becoming critical and death or recovery which takes a couple of weeks.

It's wrong to calculate this by infection numbers vs deaths because that assumes everyone will recover with no increase in deaths, do you see this serious flaw with this method?

Why did the Swiss medical link say it would be wrong by orders of magnitude to do it this way?

We don't know what the outcome will be for current open cases their fate will probably be known over the next month and looking at closed cases which have a result it doesn't look good for them.

Do you think we would be going through this unprecedented shutdown worldwide if it wasn't serious?

For the record I graduated from Uni as a mature age student nearly 20 years ago. I did science mathematics and mechanical engineering.

[Baronvonrort]

A serious question for Ziad, TT and others who think I am wrong.

If your method of calculating death rate with infections vs deaths give you a rate why are the observed results with closed cases (recovery or death) not corresponding with your flawed death rate or even close?

If you are correct and I am wrong then surely the results of closed cases would match your predicted death rate, can you explain why this is not happening?

What orders of magnitude is your (flawed) calculated death rate out by?

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude.

Diagnosis of viral infection will precede recovery or death by days to weeks and the number of deaths should therefore be compared to the past case counts.

https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

Please answer these questions.

[sungazer]

Tassie just give up face it the death rate from living is 100%.

[TassieTiger]

1st up - you’ve found something on the internet so your right? Sound familiar??

2nd Most ppl do not get retested yo clear their disease UNLESS they are on the serious or hospitalised list - there aren’t enough test kits to test mainstream once, let alone re test to confirm...it’s is so insane to me that you cannot see the flaws in your methods.
Please tell me your not studying something important.
The death or mortality rate can only be estimated with concrete figures and I’m in agreement with WHO etc who are basing estimates on infection rate vs deaths + corrective factor.

Re your aids question - again, like your previously applied flawed logic, it makes zero sense Re asking 10, 30 or what ever years. AIDS is a disease as is CV - and I’m asking you to apply the same logic to that disease AS you have with CV....utilising only fully recovered patients.

If you do - then you can only come up with a 100 % death rate...which shows how crazy it is, because it’s obviously not that. It’s pretty simple really and I’m amazed that you cannot see the flaws that many, many ppl have tried to show you...