The combined COVID-19 topic

[sungazer]

There was an announcement yesterday that some Australian scientist had actually made a vaccine and that is showed promising results in animals. It was being sent to the Netherlands for pier review and testing on Humans. They said it would still be a year to 18 months away. I think it may go a bit quicker if it doesnt show up any real bad side effects.

I think china was lucky that the outbreak they had was before Chinese new Year when the locals really get mobile and start traveling between provinces and cities. Otherwise a lot of travel in China is done just by the bosses and overseas to Casinos in Cambodia ect.

I know the Charles Lieber has largely been debunked but that is what you would expect even if it was the gospel truth. If an American was found to have manufactured it in the US and then sold it to the Chinese OMG they could never live with that. Look how desperately they are perusing Julian Assange for airing their dirty laundry.

[wanneroo]

I think when dealing with the numbers from the US (because they are so big) you need to keep the normal influenza rates in the back of your mind to keep things in perspective as to gauge how much worse this is.

The normal Influenza rate is about 1 million cases and 70,000 deaths. In both cases how the deaths are reported are crucial and I hope they would use the same guidelines. Is the death reported from the Flu or from the underling condition the patient has. Its a bit like Phenomena lots of people die from it but it is not normally the root cause of becoming sick.

Beware the Wuhan Bat Flu death stats out of the USA.

A couple of weeks ago I had heard from different people here in my state with adult children that worked in New York City hospitals that most deaths were being reported as Covid-19, whether or not they had a positive test or not, the main reason being the hospital would get more federal funds.

I took that as just anecdotal stuff that may or may not be true and then the CDC guidelines for reporting deaths were revealed:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coro ... deaths.pdf

Once this hit the media this week, Dr. Birx, one of the presidential advisors, confirmed it as true.

With all this federal government money sloshing around, obviously the hospitals are going to lean on the side of recording deaths as Covid-19. Even NYC Health's statistics show that almost 99% of deaths are folks with diabetes, heart disease, cancer, etc. These folks could have just as easily died from the flu, food poisoning, a common cold and numerous other things that caused their weakened immune system to collapse.

Unless you are past 65 and/or in poor health, your chances of dying from this are slim to none and as each day goes by we are learning more how to treat it therapeutically.

[Bill]

Waneroo I suspect alot of what your saying has a fair bit of truth about it

Latest data out of Germany ( they are the leading nation interms of testing) is that the actual death rate might be as low as 0.22%

April 10 (GMT)
3936 new cases and 160 new deaths in Germany
A study by the University of Bonn has tested a randomized sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt (an epicenter of the outbreak in Germany) and found that 2% of the population was currently infected and 14% were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected — whether or not they experienced any symptoms. Eliminating an overlap between the two groups, the team concluded that 15% of the town have been infected with the virus [source]

If these findings are correct, Germany’s actual death rate could be as low as 0.22% (2,607 deaths / (2,607 cases that have resulted in death + 1,172,000 cases that have resulted in recovery)). Assuming 14% of the German population of 83,700,000 (1,172,000 people) have been infected and have recovered. [source] [source]

Not saying that this is a massive beat up but if a 0.22% death rate is what the real number is then shutting down everything and destroying our economy seems like a massive over reaction.

[trekin]

Waneroo I suspect alot of what your saying has a fair bit of truth about it

Latest data out of Germany ( they are the leading nation interms of testing) is that the actual death rate might be as low as 0.22%

April 10 (GMT)
3936 new cases and 160 new deaths in Germany
A study by the University of Bonn has tested a randomized sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt (an epicenter of the outbreak in Germany) and found that 2% of the population was currently infected and 14% were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected — whether or not they experienced any symptoms. Eliminating an overlap between the two groups, the team concluded that 15% of the town have been infected with the virus [source]

If these findings are correct, Germany’s actual death rate could be as low as 0.22% (2,607 deaths / (2,607 cases that have resulted in death + 1,172,000 cases that have resulted in recovery)). Assuming 14% of the German population of 83,700,000 (1,172,000 people) have been infected and have recovered. [source] [source]

Not saying that this is a massive beat up but if a 0.22% death rate is what the real number is then shutting down everything and destroying our economy seems like a massive over reaction.

Interesting reading here;
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN21R1DB
In Aus, the finger prick tests [Point Of Care Tests (POCT)] are being discouraged because it is said that the false positives are too high, that is that when they do this POCT and it shows positive they then send a test sample to a lab to confirmed the presence of the covid 19 virus, over 13% of the samples then showed no virus present. These were two different tests, one looking for the protien made by the anti bodies, and the other looking for the virus itself, it stands to reason that if the protien is present, then you either have the virus and your body is fighting it, or you have had the virus and the antibodies are present in your body, but not the virus itself.

[marksman]

so we all agree the numbers are fudged its about time

in australia only people who came back from overseas or had direct contact with someone who did were tested
america has similar practices UK as well
germany on the other hand is testing everyone they can now, apparently 300,000 people per week, germany has been criticized that too many asymptomatic individuals were being tested, who knows who cares

l mentioned in an earlier post "what is a wonder is that if the chinese flu moved around all other countries so quickly with the CCP and WHO org saying at the start its nothing to worry about (sounds like ziad ) how come china's main city shanghai, shanghai has 30 million people, only had 337 infections and 3 deaths and large parts of china hardly being affected strange very strange"

are these stories a tit for tat lots of conspiracies

one thing is for sure its not a " Wuhan Bat Flu" its a germy CCP flu from Wuhan

[trekin]

so we all agree the numbers are fudged its about time

in australia only people who came back from overseas or had direct contact with someone who did were tested
america has similar practices UK as well
germany on the other hand is testing everyone they can now, apparently 300,000 people per week, germany has been criticized that too many asymptomatic individuals were being tested, who knows who cares

l mentioned in an earlier post "what is a wonder is that if the chinese flu moved around all other countries so quickly with the CCP and WHO org saying at the start its nothing to worry about (sounds like ziad ) how come china's main city shanghai, shanghai has 30 million people, only had 337 infections and 3 deaths and large parts of china hardly being affected strange very strange"

are these stories a tit for tat lots of conspiracies

one thing is for sure its not a " Wuhan Bat Flu" its a germy CCP flu from Wuhan

Germany's patient 0 was confirmed of the 19th Jan, a Chinese woman brought to Germany to run training workshops for an auto parts manufacturer, adds some credence to my belief that the unknown sister virus to the flu that was brought to my area of QLD by Chinese engineers from Wuhan weeks earlier than the first confirmed case in Aus was in fact covid 19.

[marksman]

if anyone still thinks "The world powers dont seem to have a problem buying from China" have a look at 14:14 from this link, what a joke
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idXfVQ6Am_I

and 7:48 of this one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGnq7854jTo

and 2:55 of this one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP6ru9aE8OM

and 4:30 of this one show the chinese communist party and there mask diplomacy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0q7mv5HZkcM

[TheFirearmEnthusiast]

I dont wanna get into the specifics
I dont mean to get into a heated political debate
I dont want to get into a screaming match

However, it feels like we're doing quite well in Australia combating Covid 19 so far...
We have a very low death rate here so far
60x deaths so far for 6,000x infections
That's a 1% death rate here in Australia
(It's probably even less than 1% as lots of people probably have it without knowing it)
That's awesome news
Considering the devastation that Covid 19 is causing/has caused in USA, Italy, Spain and France etc..

That's pretty good
Whatever our state and federal governments are doing/have done
It seems to have worked pretty well for us so far
I'm impressed

Hopefully it stays that way
Hopefully little by little, we'll see some of our freedoms come back a little

I know people that rely on the gym for their mental well being
I know people that rely on hunting/target shooting for their mental well being
I know people that rely on playing sports for their mental well being
I know people that rely on shopping for their mental well being
I know people that rely on going out drinking for their mental well being
Being able to see friends and family, that's important for someone to feel happy

The restrictions that we have right now, even though they're saving lives no doubt, they're however not so good for people's well being (mental health wise)

Australia has always been know as "the lucky country"

Hopefully we'll be a lucky country when it comes to Covid 19 too

[Sergeant Hartman]

Even in the US I see the percentage of death rate is not very high. But what is does is, hasten the death of older people. And everyone has parents and grandparents etc.

I do find it interesting though...

Taiwan has less than 400 cases even though they are right next to China.
Singapore is at 3000 cases and Hong Kong being a part of China is actually at 1000 cases.

I wonder what are they doing better than UK, Italy and ofcourse USA. It almost appears that countries where the government is strong and moreover are more compliant seem to do reasonably well.

[TheFirearmEnthusiast]

I was just saying that Covid 19 can have terrible ramifications if you don't have the right legislations/measures in place
(Look at the devastation in USA, Italy, Spain, France for example)

[TassieTiger]

The worry now...how long is the proverbial string? What is the new normal? Even I’m starting to reevaluate what’s important in my life - I imagine others are doing likewise...and that in itself means big changes...to industry, retail, daily life etc.
I know a friend who was literally just about to pull the trigger on his first ever Ferrari - a life long dream for him and he’d worked and saved hard and aged 50 was now positioned to buy - but when he called a day ago and said, wtf was i thinking...made me sit back as well.

[Sergeant Hartman]

So he didn't get a Ferrari... shame. What does he think he will take his money to the grave...or give it to his kids?

I live life a qtr mile at a time... No idea when it will end, could be tomorrow... but let's have some fun while you can. If i had enough money for a Ferrari... well i won't but a new one, but if i really wanted to buy s Ferrari, i would buy a 355 or 430... put the rest in an investment.

[TheFirearmEnthusiast]

For me
Covid 19 made me reflect on freedom..
We had it so good before
When we had the freedom to:
- go to the shooting range
- or hunt
- or buy a rifle
- or go to a restaurant
- or go to a bar
- or visit friends and family etc..
- or catch up with someone over coffee etc
- or simply just go for a drive to be honest

We had so much freedom before
And now, all of a sudden, we don't

I guess for me yeah
Covid 19 made me realise that we should never ever take our freedoms for granted

[marksman]

if you mean freedoms as in "the state of not being imprisoned or enslaved" l would agree
and l agree the government has done a pretty good job, a few slip ups but what country hasn't
scomo had to get this right especially after the roasting he got from the bushfires

but there are lessons to be learnt here
lets just hope they are learnt

[TheFirearmEnthusiast]

100% agreed marksman

[Stix]

Yes i hope they get leant as well, but my fear is what new restrictions & taxes we will be governed by...

Hopefully we come out of this without being further oppressed...!!
Especially with gun laws & freedoms around hunting...!!

[TassieTiger]

So how long is everyone’s estimate for existing restrictions? I’m hearing a lot of variability - and I’m not sure there’s a steadfast answer.
I’ll take a stab on a slow, stepped, reintroduction of some socialising / eatery type businesses in Or around 3 months time from now...that should give us time to stockpile testing kits, ready for the potential future outbreak...With a month or two monitoring from there to determine further direction.

I think over seas main stream travel? Next year at best...

[Stix]

Not sure Tassie...

To my way of thinking...if all is as it seems...i think youd be wise to base a time line on death rates...

We cant afford, & the Govt dont want high death rates as health systems cant cope...& that would have flow on effects as we would all know.
Here in Adel i believe they've, or are going to empty our most notable hospital in the city (Royal Adelaide) purely for virus victims...everything else farmed out to suburban hosppitals...

Id say the theory, or to my mind, the best way to manage the risk of a societal collapse while getting/heading "back to normal" timeline is be governed by allowing us to be infected at a rate that doesnt overflow our hospitals with walking dead...simple as that really...that way we will slowly gain the immunity, with the hospitals kept at a rate that is manageable...or until a vaccine is produced...

So im not going to do the math--as that would require me to do research on ACTUAL infection & death rates-(i wouldnt even know where to start for that )-& i dont even want to think about that what with the clusterfuk such subjects seem to create on here with some people...
But, id imagine working by/with all the infection, complication & death rates, with our population, governed by what the health systems can deal with in all major areas, you'll have your answer.

The Govt would have already done this, & be updating it every day--no doubt having (or should i say--id like to think) they'd have the best social demographic, medical & pandemic experts, IT solutions & mapping guru's, engineering & quantity surveyors on the job already doing it.

If we ended up like what, well i at least, i am led to believe say Italy & Spain are like, we'll go into meltdown in the cities & too many people would run to the rural areas which would just smash our agricultural industry, which we NEED for food...!!...not to mention, they (Ag indstry) & mining, are probably going to be our quickest road back to economic recovery...
(So i predict a mining boom for 10 years following societies reinstatement, with new mining licences being thrown about like lollies--just watch all the big international mining giants circling our shores in 6 -12 months time--lets just hope the environment doesnt suffer from it eh...!!...)
Id almost guaruntee a retirement age extension come next election...think thats a given too...

So if you know someone who can hack into Scomo's PC, you'll have the most accurate answer to date id say...


Im going to add too...im pretty happy with how the Govt have handled this...
At the risk of upsetting the Labor heads out there, ill say that if the pollies in power now are whts going to be our choices next election, i bloodywell hope we stay with this mob---i cant believe Albo & Co have nothing useful to sayother than act as if everything done well was from their direction...just a bunch of childish brats not fit for governing us out of this in my observation...
(now im ducking & weaving out of the room...)

[TassieTiger]

The govt have done well but I’m sure they are wanting to stay out in front now and this will govern timing - Singapore and Thaiwan were doing really well until they started easing restrictions and then, they spiked beyond their initial infection rates and are now enduring extreme lockdowns, so learnings from those countries will be paramount.

I watched a video today with scomo - he rightfully said, he cannot put a time frame on it - a time frame on a cure is toooo long.

Re the economy. I read an ABC article saying how the govt and RBA could print money to spend and it would not really need to be paid back as we would normally think (smoke and mirrors). This made zero sense to me so I researched a little more - it was all there in black and white, there are ways around emergency situations like this and USA / Japan utilised similar strategies after the GFC, Japan was printing extra money for over 10 years...do you think I can now relocate the article...bugger it.

But I do agree - boom / push / build / spend times ahead...hopefully, local manufacturing gets an injection but I do wonder as per previous - Re mindsets...

[wanneroo]

I think the answers are going to be with expanded testing so people can easily find if they have it or had it and also with therapeutic medicines available to ease the symptoms, in the same way we have cold and flu meds.

One good thing about a vaccine is that although the virus has already mutated into many strains, they are not that different from one another, so that makes it easier to get an effective vaccine going. However I wouldn't put all this faith in big government to deliver a safe and effective vaccine in the time frame they talk about. Herd immunity is also a possibility with this.

In the end I think people have to accept it's here, it's not going away entirely and shutting down everything has slowed it, but not ended it. So now people need to figure out how to live with it.

[sungazer]

I actually think that by the end of April there will be a fair reduction in the restrictions. It is being asked for already given the much lower rates of infection and we have seen in Australia not a huge hospitalization rate.
looking at the numbers now which would be at about a peak for hospitalizations there are only 40 people in hospital in Vic 15 in intensive care there have been 1291 cases and 1118 people recovered. In NSW the largest outbreak 225 people in hospital and 32 in ICU. With the stopping of all Elective surgeries, sporting and outdoor activities that represent a fair % of presentations to the Emergency room. I would think Hospitals would have quite a large capacity to take more people. I would go as far to say that they are well down on occupancy.

[Sergeant Hartman]

Its correct the hospitals are under utilised at the moment. If the govt dfo the restrictions there is a guaranteed real chance that the virus will flare up again.

But maybe that's what we really need going forward... periods of easing and ramping up restrictions.

But i am hearing all these people calling up radio while in 14 days lockdown, complaining they are locked into a room, they have to use their own mobile data for internet. No free Netflix. Food is horrible, and uber eats is expensive..... maybe they need to be sent to wuhan... joking

[Stix]

Well one thing is for sure...the worlds necessity to come up with abreviations &/or acronyms to make saying things easier & shorter, only to make them longer by adding in some, or all of the actual words is one of those little things that im sure will always cause a rise in my inner irrits population...

Every time i hear PIN-number & ATM Machine, i have to take a breath, but now every single reporter i have heard on mainstream media reporting on the shortage of PPE particularly in the medical profession, has to now say PPE-Personal Protective Equipment...
I heard one reporter a few days ago, say that, and then actually explain what PPE was, along with give examples of various types of PPE such as coats, shoes/foot coverings, masks etc etc.

Its as if they know what it is, but the rest of the population need the "spoken shorthand" explained to them every single time 'the educated reporter' uses the phrase...

In which case, why not just say "personal protective equipment" & forgo the elongated explanation...

Im a tradesman, & have done a stint in a mine, & i can tell you, i canno think of a time in my life where ive EVER either heard, or come across someone who has needed an explanation of what 'PPE' is..

I cant help but think its these well educated reporters that needed an explanation, somehow think the rest of us are unable to piece together what is meant when we come across a sign upon entering an area that says "PPE must be wron beyond this point" with a picture of a hard hat & dust mask...

Sigh...

Hell...last week i heard a reporter talking about people being worried of being infected with---get this---"The Corona Virus AND COVID 19"....

Ah there...that feels better...

[Gamerancher]

"Every time i hear PIN-number & ATM Machine, i have to take a breath, but now every single reporter i have heard on mainstream media reporting on the shortage of PPE particularly in the medical profession, has to now say PPE-Personal Protective Equipment..." Stix.(quote)

I'm hearin' you brother. My absolute pet hate at the moment is all of the media and politicians who refer to people who are "vunerable",
it's VULNERABLE you half-wits, there is an "L" in it and it 'aint silent.!!!! Learn how to pronounce it properly or STFU!
( Rant over ).

[sungazer]

The response I heard from Australia I thought was very good. It went along the lines that Well Educated Western countries didnt really need the WHO thay had the ability to access information and make well informed decisions on the best way to handle any risks in line with their own country priorities. The WHO was more beneficial to the poorer nations that have governments is all sorts of disrepair and health care services to match. countries that have no real central co ordination of services or governments that issue health information to their citizens. The response went as far to say that to remove support for the WHO in the middle of a pandemic was the worst possible time as they are the best source of information for many countries and the only conduit that many countries have to a coordinated and combined effort / support from the rest of the world.

[Sergeant Hartman]

Now that is an unbelievably intelligent response sungazer good on them.

WHO job is not to replace our state or federal health departments.... but help third world countries that don't have a health department. These are the countries that covid19 or swineflu or Ebola comes to play and kill hundreds or thousands of people. Not only that, not only that the virus can percolate and start up again from these countries.

Anyway sungazer hes a media, he is thinking of reelection... this is how the poor will remember him...he givith the money... not his inaction bringith the covid19.

I recon if the majority of Americans vote counted Hillary as President would have made lot better decisions

[trekin]

Vacines are only, on average, 40% - 60% effective in provoking an immune response in the human body. Herd immunity is achieved, for most contagious diseases, when 60% - 70% of the population have built up an immunity to the disease. Measles requires a much higher percentage, as does this virus going on current modeling. Herd immunity is usually achieved by using a combination of both man made (vacine) and natural (become infected) to reach the desired % required to protect the vulnerable.

[TassieTiger]

Talking about civil liberties? This is just off the show...
GOVT in Tas has asked for legal advice in regards to getting the population of NW tassie to download a tracking APP and if your pulled over and refuse to prove you’ve downloaded app to your phone ? $1600 fine and mandated app installed ON THE SPOT!
Lie and say you don’t have a smart phone? Well - they are also trying to gain advice Re getting info from ph companies...IF THIS went ahead - think this might stop at NW Tas?

1939 Austria - “do you have your phone/papers, show me your app...nein? Come wiv me...”
Ffs.

[marksman]

l'd be farked Tassie l haven't owned a mobile for 20 years mate since l retired

how come the TDS guys haven't chimed in blaming Don so Blackened has something to do in the morning, taking out the trash

[TassieTiger]

It’s only early mate lol