The "Graveyard of Empires" strikes again

[straightshooter]

I wonder which empire will be next to try it's luck there.

[JohnV]

I amazes me that in 20 years of US support and multi billions in spending and the Afghan Government ANA could not even defend Kabul for 24 hours . The Kurds defended Kobani with US support against Isis and lost 11 000 men and woman but they beat Isis .
The majority seem to want the Taliban to take over . It's the woman I feel sad for they will suffer the most with loss of freedoms .

[bigrich]

I take it you’re referring to Afghanistan. Yeah, well, if foreign empires want to invade a country, I can’t blame the people there for wanting their country back

[bladeracer]

They just need somebody to get a positive test. I'm sure terrorism is not one of the five reasons to be outside.

[JohnV]

The Taliban are not the " Afghan people " They are a Pakistani sponsored radical group that have infiltrated the whole country to a point that the majority of Afghan's support them out of fear and survival . Generation's of children have been brainwashed to accept the Taliban ideology . The Pashtun type Afghans fought the Taliban and wanted rid of them but alas they never had the numbers or support they needed and Western countries were hesitant to arm them because of terrorist type thinking in their ranks .
Unfortunately there are no good guys in Afghanistan to arm and support . Taliban are smarter than Isis they will not advertise their atrocities .

[boingk]

Look at it from their perspective - who would you choose?

The stand-in lackluster government installed by the US...

...or the guys with the guns and the feel-good slogans of food, prosperity and taking your country back from the foreign devils?

[cz515]

The Taliban are not the " Afghan people " They are a Pakistani sponsored radical group that have infiltrated the whole country to a point that the majority of Afghan's support them out of fear and survival . Generation's of children have been brainwashed to accept the Taliban ideology . The Pashtun type Afghans fought the Taliban and wanted rid of them but alas they never had the numbers or support they needed and Western countries were hesitant to arm them because of terrorist type thinking in their ranks .
Unfortunately there are no good guys in Afghanistan to arm and support . Taliban are smarter than Isis they will not advertise their atrocities .

With respect I would disagree with your analysis. I can waffle on for a long time about it, but I read an article yesterday on the age, written by a military guy who has not only fought in Afghanistan but has been an adviser to politicians in Aus.

His point, the people wanted libation from Taliban and then be left alone. They didn't want a puppet government run by Western countries speaking their values (in a way opposite to Taliban spreading their values). They didn't want bridges, hospitals and schools put in locations of choosing by NATO. So the question often asked was what are you doing here?

You cannot occupy a country for 20 years and force your values and then expect the people to be grateful. The US/NATO could be there another 50 years losing trillions of dollars and thousands of personnel but the result would be the same.

Furthermore Taliban have done deals this time and have come back with support of China and Russia and tbh Taliban were always supported by half of the population.

[Communism_Is_Cancer]

A lot of people forget that so many countries(Afghanistan being one of them) are not a unified nation. Afghan land is made up of hundreds of different tribes since thousands of years ago who have no loyalty to each other. The Taliban make up only around 75000 and the Afghan army is(was) over 300000. Yet the path of least resistance is to just give up.


In a way Afghanistan is no different to how our federation is made up of self governing states. Me a Queenslander is forced by some government all the way down in Canberra to be one of its subjects and use its passport and ATO because I happened to be born in what it claims is its territory.

The best thing to come from this covid is that states are reverting back to the old days and realising the federation is more harm than good. 100 years ago they were worried about a big federal government far removed from the people, now we are living it.

[bigrich]

The Taliban are not the " Afghan people " They are a Pakistani sponsored radical group that have infiltrated the whole country to a point that the majority of Afghan's support them out of fear and survival . Generation's of children have been brainwashed to accept the Taliban ideology . The Pashtun type Afghans fought the Taliban and wanted rid of them but alas they never had the numbers or support they needed and Western countries were hesitant to arm them because of terrorist type thinking in their ranks .
Unfortunately there are no good guys in Afghanistan to arm and support . Taliban are smarter than Isis they will not advertise their atrocities .

Thanks for your insights into this tragic situation

[bigrich]

Actually all you fellas are putting up good insights and information on the subject.

I’m confused now cause you’re all making sense and good points

[cz515]

A lot of people forget that so many countries(Afghanistan being one of them) are not a unified nation. Afghan land is made up of hundreds of different tribes since thousands of years ago who have no loyalty to each other. The Taliban make up only around 75000 and the Afghan army is(was) over 300000. Yet the path of least resistance is to just give up.

Very correct, not just that but most of the middle east is like that as well

[Communism_Is_Cancer]

Every conspiracy for September 11 aside, the Americans were attacked. So the initial invasion in October 2001 was just. However the so called nation building efforts over the last 20 years and 2 trillion dollars spent were a waste of time.

To put things in perspective, there are now troops in Afghanistan in the US and allied coalition who were not even a sperm when September 11 happened. Thats how far removed the initial reason for the war has become.

[Communism_Is_Cancer]

It annoys me when people say we should never of been there because yes I believe we should of to avenge the 3000 people who died. However I think America should of gone there kicked arse and pulled out.

A war of insurgency is never won. If you are some kid and your dad is killed in an drone strike then you have just become motivated for the rest of your days to seek revenge. And it becomes a never ending circle of attack.

[cz515]

Someone pointed this article to me. So I figured I'll post it here

https://qz.com/2047785/under-the-taliba ... -minerals/

As usual the US went into a country "not" to help the population

[Bugman]

Me thinks that next few months may reveal more than we would like. Hope not.

[JohnV]

The Taliban are not the " Afghan people " They are a Pakistani sponsored radical group that have infiltrated the whole country to a point that the majority of Afghan's support them out of fear and survival . Generation's of children have been brainwashed to accept the Taliban ideology . The Pashtun type Afghans fought the Taliban and wanted rid of them but alas they never had the numbers or support they needed and Western countries were hesitant to arm them because of terrorist type thinking in their ranks .
Unfortunately there are no good guys in Afghanistan to arm and support . Taliban are smarter than Isis they will not advertise their atrocities .

With respect I would disagree with your analysis. I can waffle on for a long time about it, but I read an article yesterday on the age, written by a military guy who has not only fought in Afghanistan but has been an adviser to politicians in Aus.

His point, the people wanted libation from Taliban and then be left alone. They didn't want a puppet government run by Western countries speaking their values (in a way opposite to Taliban spreading their values). They didn't want bridges, hospitals and schools put in locations of choosing by NATO. So the question often asked was what are you doing here?

You cannot occupy a country for 20 years and force your values and then expect the people to be grateful. The US/NATO could be there another 50 years losing trillions of dollars and thousands of personnel but the result would be the same.

Furthermore Taliban have done deals this time and have come back with support of China and Russia and tbh Taliban were always supported by half of the population.

Taliban are not the Persian blood that original Afghans came from . The Pashtun are .

[womble]

Agree with JohnV.
His first post summed it up. The ones the allies fought alongside were no more virtuous.
The Taliban will rule with fear, brutality and savagery. But the last point, they are far more savvy to public relations now with the west.

And onto the next empire. Well that’s China. They want that gas line for their belt and road or Silk Road whatever they call their master plan now. They need it to link them all up. They will offer the carrot and the stick, like all before them. Neither will work, like all before them.
That’s not what the Taliban want. They can’t be bought and they can’t be subjugated. They won’t compromise for anyone ever.

[womble]

Everything between Iran and Afghanistan will fall in with the Taliban over the next few years, everything that borders China’s east will be their nightmare. Should keep them busy.
Russia will likewise be rather busy,. Russia and china won’t be mates anymore. Too bad, so sad.
And Israel probably just s**t a brick.
But for us it’s rosy. Clever Americans.

[Patriot]

It’s a sh@thole it’s got me buggered why anyone would want to defend it when even it’s own army couldn’t be bothered. In my opinion they all deserve to be kicked of a cliff.

[Communism_Is_Cancer]

It’s a sh@thole it’s got me buggered why anyone would want to defend it when even it’s own army couldn’t be bothered. In my opinion they all deserve to be kicked of a cliff.

One word why people want to defend it. Take a guess? MONEYYYYYYY!!!!!!!! Opium production today is higher than in any point in history, making billions of dollars. Not to mention all the other metals it has. Defence contractors, construction companies and people in the opium trade(The CIA) got very rich off of this wars longevity.

[JohnV]

Agree with JohnV.
His first post summed it up. The ones the allies fought alongside were no more virtuous.
The Taliban will rule with fear, brutality and savagery. But the last point, they are far more savvy to public relations now with the west.

And onto the next empire. Well that’s China. They want that gas line for their belt and road or Silk Road whatever they call their master plan now. They need it to link them all up. They will offer the carrot and the stick, like all before them. Neither will work, like all before them.
That’s not what the Taliban want. They can’t be bought and they can’t be subjugated. They won’t compromise for anyone ever.

Yes China needs that link down on the coast of the North Arabian sea . It seemed that it would go through Pakistan as they have coastal frontage but that seems to not be happening . If China can get a large port facility and rail head and possible pipeline on that coast it can ship oil , gas from Persian Gulf and food products from Africa and avoid ship transport through the South China Sea which is going to be a flash point one day . Afghanistan has no coastal frontage so for Afghanistan to be any help there has to be a takeover of South West Pakistan , Balochistan area to secure some coastal frontage . So if the Taliban turn on their sponsors Pakistan and start attacking Balochistan we know they are working with China . On the other hand they could do a deal with Iran and run through Afghanistan and Iran to the coast BUT a large Chinese port right at the entry to the Gulf will upset the Arab states and the US and others and be against US sanctions on Iran . They could also see that as a threat to oil supplies coming from the Gulf .

[cz515]

Jees mate where do you get your information You are so wrong on so many fronts.

My suggestion is google a place called Gwadar. China is already operating the deep sea port and have built a shiny road through the middle of Pakistan under a program called CPEC.

[wanneroo]

Going in to kick al qaeda's butt was fine but this nation building crap is for the birds. The point of the military is not a meals on wheels, school builder and all that crap.

There will be a honeymoon period and then next year all the tribes will start fighting each other again. A bunch of units have already formed up in the Panjshir Valley to fight the Taliban.

[cz515]

That's very likely.

It will be more infighting than fighting the Taliban per say...or maybe everyone fights everyone.

But then considering Pakistan, Iran, China and Russia are both working together.... you never know

[JohnV]

Going in to kick al qaeda's butt was fine but this nation building crap is for the birds. The point of the military is not a meals on wheels, school builder and all that crap.

There will be a honeymoon period and then next year all the tribes will start fighting each other again. A bunch of units have already formed up in the Panjshir Valley to fight the Taliban.

That's quite possible . From The Panjshir Valley that would have to be elements of the Northern Alliance the late Massouds army . They could not wipe out the Taliban before when the Talban controlled far less of the country . So it's going to be hard going BUT ! The Taliban are now the establishment the Government so lets see how well they handle a guerrilla insurgency and run the country at the same time .

[wanneroo]

That's quite possible . From The Panjshir Valley that would have to be elements of the Northern Alliance the late Massouds army . They could not wipe out the Taliban before when the Talban controlled far less of the country . So it's going to be hard going BUT ! The Taliban are now the establishment the Government so lets see how well they handle a guerrilla insurgency and run the country at the same time .

Well yes, that's why they gave amnesty to government workers and officials, not that A-stan had much functioning anyways.

Once we get down the road a bit the realities will set in and I really don't think all the tribal differences are settled or sorted.

Afghanistan is much like Iraq. It was really never meant to be together.

I was reading something and the author opined that one big goof we made was not installing the King Zahir at the lolya gurga back in 2002. Probably too late for that.

China is already rattling swords again over Taiwan, so with as weak and feeble as Joe Biden is, they might decide this is their golden hour to make it happen.

I called my Congressman and expressed we need hearings over this debacle. Only clowns can run a show like this and after 20 years end up making the Taliban richer, with more arms and guns and more territory than ever before. In the end Joe Biden left the Afghanis to hang. He cut all the technical support and munitions to their Air Force, cut off all the intel so they were blind, got us out of Bagram Air Base, which was dumb and cut off other supplies. It was no surprise the dominos fell one by one. The taliban also ended up with all the biometric information of all the people that worked for us, so this is a major debacle.

[disco stu]

How many times does history have to repeat itself

My wife thinks this will cost Biden the next election. I'm far from using my finger on a political pulse so I can't comment on that. Pretty wrong though

[RoginaJack]

I saw a photo of a group of "Taliban fighters" standing around a vehicle OK, one guy was wearing sandals (standard issue) but the rest were in black clothing, GP boots, etc.
What impressed me most was the processional way they handled the weapons The group looked very fit, well groomed & well trained and definitely not a ran tag mob just down from the hills.
Wonder who trained them?

[womble]

I saw a photo of a group of "Taliban fighters" standing around a vehicle OK, one guy was wearing sandals (standard issue) but the rest were in black clothing, GP boots, well groomed, etc. What impressed me most was the professional way they handled the weapons. They looked very processional am definitely not a ran tag mob just down from the hills. Wonder who trained them?

The Americans trained them, under Reagan i think, to overthrow the soviets.

[womble]

Excellent assessment here > https://www.betootaadvocate.com/headlines/us-trained-afghan-army-fail-to-defend-us-backed-afghan-government-from-us-funded-afghan-warlords/