Ohh the irony in NSW and VIC

[cz515]

I was going to post it but decided it really needs to be put in its own thread.

So I find it quite interesting that NSW is opening up. They had lower maximum number of cases even though they didn't hit covid harder and faster. They have less lockdowns, less days spent in lockdowns.

But even more interesting is that from next week NSW can come into Vic... and presumably we can go there too. And the week after without quarantine overseas people can come in NSW (and VIC).

But we cannot officially leave our homes and drive further than 15km

[Oldbloke]

It was my understanding that NSW residents will need a permit to enter Vic. And perhaps isolate? I didn't hear any mention of the reverse. But didn't see all the news today. Also I think NSW is opening up earlier than the national agreement. Someone is looking for votes I guess.

As a matter of interest since 1 July I have been tapping new cases reported daily in to a sheet comparing NSW & VIC. The NSW out break started a week or so prior to that..

line graph.JPG (36.53 KiB) Viewed 3618 times

NSW took off faster than Vic and they still have the most cases in total by a big margin. But we look like catching them in the not too far future,

[cz515]

You are right they took off faster as glades didn't lockdown for 2 or 3 weeks and then she did lockdown the first week or two it was equivalent to stage 1 and 2 of vic.

But with your graph one could argue that lockdowns don't work. I would be more inclined to say, that the government overused the lockdowns so much thatmany people are over lockdowns and they as a tool have lost their efficacy in 2021. Something that is very evident when I have to travel (for work) by looking at the number of cars/utes on the roads at any time of the day. Seeing shops and restaurants are closed where are all these people going I wonder.

I could be wrong, but my understanding is that people from nsw who are vaccinated can come back to vic quarantine free. And similarly vic and nsw are opening international borders. With vic international borders opening well before the 15km rule is removed. It seems and I could be wrong. But we can goto NSW and not quarantine...so in essence if we are vaccinated we can go on a holiday to NSW and back... but not leave the 15km zone when in metro Melbourne. Ahh the irony.

[cz515]

Hey ob would you mind sharing the raw data. Please

[Oldbloke]

You are right they took off faster as glades didn't lockdown for 2 or 3 weeks and then she did lockdown the first week or two it was equivalent to stage 1 and 2 of vic.

But with your graph one (1) could argue that lockdowns don't work. I would be more inclined to say, that the government overused the lockdowns so much that many (2) people are over lockdowns and they as a tool have lost their efficacy in 2021. Something that is very evident when I have to travel (for work) by looking at the number of cars/utes on the roads at any time of the day. Seeing shops and restaurants are closed where are all these people going I wonder.

I could be wrong, (3) but my understanding is that people from nsw who are vaccinated can come back to vic quarantine free. And similarly vic and nsw are opening international borders. With vic international borders opening well before the 15km rule is removed. It seems and I could be wrong. (4) But we can goto NSW and not quarantine...so in essence if we are vaccinated we can go on a holiday to NSW and back... but not leave the 15km zone when in metro Melbourne. Ahh the irony.

Pretty bored so back dated the graph to 1/6/21

Daily cases.JPG (37.11 KiB) Viewed 3595 times

1 & 2 I think are correct. Plenty of people are ignoring the rules now.
3. I think that would be sensible approach at this point in time. If your double vaccinated your risk factor is pretty low.
4. Got my doubts, but as I said didn't see the news and not much on the ABC news site.

Keep in mind both VIC & NSW are still under "soft" lock downs. Melbourne being the exception. Poor buggers.

To be fair very soon everyone will have had a reasonable chance to get vaccinated. There are a few exceptions though. So if you choose not to, run the gauntlet. Just feel sorry for those that have found it difficult for various reasons, like isolated towns and some sectors that are clearly missing out such as aboriginals and disabled, etc.

Sort of does my head in. I know a boke who is very over weight and about 68, refuses to get any shot. And a 70 year old mechanical engineer says both haven't been tested enough. So no go again. I do understand some being hesitant, but this isn't 1950. Medical science has improved since thalidomide

[Oldbloke]

I just did a copy paste into a sheet from here.

https://covidlive.com.au/ easy peasy.
You do have excel or equivalent dont you?

[wanneroo]

Like Wanneroo has pointed out many times in the past, lockdowns are not going to change anything and it's clear from data, countries well vaccinated are rife with covid, Singapore and Israel being great examples. So no at this point I don't think the vaccines are going to change anything either.

[cz515]

Singapore abs israel are examples with flair
Flawed logic. Small sample sizes, with either a large population that is anti vax or living in ghettos.

Hence I go back to plenty of euro countries, and UK. High number of cases... which is expected and low deaths.. which is what we want.... after vaccination is like flu...as you say.


Thanks OB, I'll have a look on that site.

[cz515]

OB you are right, Vic needs a permit to come from nsw..... just wondering how many will attempt a Mark Babbage

[InisBineest]

One point to consider re covid vaccine: they are not designed to stop covid, it even stop it's transmission. Instead they are designed to reduce the severity of the disease when you do get it. So if a population is largely vaccinated, the case numbers become less relevant, compared to the number of hospitalisations (which should be, in theory, lower per capita in a vaccinated population compared to an unvaccinated one with comparable cases)

[Oldbloke]

OB you are right, Vic needs a permit to come from nsw..... just wondering how many will attempt a Mark Babbage

Yeh, didn't make sense that it would be open slather.

Did you get the data ok?

BTW, system here will not allow xls sheets via PM

[boingk]

She'll be right, done it a bunch of times.

- boingk

[Baronvonrort]

There is a website tracking NSW vs VIC

It was even up to day 24 then VIC went ahead.

Day 68
VIC- 2297 cases
NSW -1200

NSW peaked with 1528 on day 73

https://www.covid19data.com.au/compare-outbreaks