by knivesinthenight » 27 Aug 2022, 10:21 pm
It's a little more simple than some make it.
Russia- nukes, and the fact they have to factor in he'll use them, if only in a limited way.
Russia's a bit player, has an economy the size of ours. But they could make good allies for the main player.
China is the heart of our next big gig. Be it by choice or because their economy forces their leaders to kick off things early due to civil unrest.
With no subs we're stuck to inshore patrolling, and god forbid they turn out to have designs on us, cause we're not going to be any Ukraine.
We underestimate the Chinese terribly. They plan way ahead of us. They have worked out solutions to hard problems.
Can't take on a US Carrier? Just make a missile big enough to cripple a carrier, that hits at 4000 kms an hour, and gets through because all the
carrier and escort ships missile defence systems are designed to take on subsonic weapons, not hypa-sonic.
Want to take Australia? Remind the world the current occupants invaded the country 230 years ago, have no legal legitimate right to the country, and they recognise our Indigenous population as the true owners of the country, and they want to help them get it back. What do they do with everyone else? Well they just happen to have large empty cities in China to re-home us all. So piss off United Nations, they did everything by the book.
Likely? Not really, but remotely possible.
Within 10 years they will equal the US and it's regional allies. We value every life, will pull back when we start losing people. They will lose thousands and all will be celebrated heros, no need to pull back when lives are not valued as we do.
I guess my point is, don't worry too much about Russia and the Ukraine, it's not the ignition point of the next big one. The scary thing is the pieces are nearly all in place for what's coming, and while likely not planned to happen for a few more years yet, their economy, leadership challenge, energy needs, Japan (do your research), or just wanting to take advantage of a distracted world could have us hoarding toilet rolls again sooner than we think. I read a book 20 years ago, fiction, that was about 70% on the money re where we are now. China knows it doesn't have to have more nukes than the US, they just need to know when to use 1, or 2. Outside of a full scale nuke war, the US and allies do not have the stomach for limited nuke exchanges for territories other than their own. Their electors would tell them to get out, get back and get us out of this, we're not going to lose thousands of Service People for a defacto Chinese province. My advise? Don't get your facts from Tictok, read history, understand why countries start wars, start to recognise the number of triggers beginning to shape that will trigger what's coming, and figure out how much you're ready to lose in trying to win for everything we take for granted.