Lazarus wrote:Hey Blade, I've been thinking about what you suggested, that personal vehicular transport will be extinct before EV's become mainstream, and I have to ask why you think this will happen?
As I see it, even by the time "they" have paved the entire world and public transport stops at everyone's premises, there will still be people either needing or wanting a personal vehicle, but I would be interested in your reasoning.
It gets harder every year to licence an older vehicle, and more expensive. Older cars now end up scrapped, despite being perfectly drivable for many more years, because people can't justify throwing $1500 at RWC and licencing a twenty or thirty year old car. When I was growing up you simply bought a $3000 ten year old car, drove it for ten years, then sold it for a grand and bought another ten year old old car. That's no longer viable, at least not in Victoria. We owned our cars, we weren't in hock to a bank for them. They are killing this off, it won't be long before it'll actually be "cheaper" to go into debt for a new vehicle than to own, licence and run an old one. And EV's seem to depreciate faster than anything else on the road. I knew a bloke that bought a Prius when they came out, well over $40k I think it cost him (a _heap_ of money back then). Had it for a few years, wanted to step up to something else, and pretty much couldn't give the thing away.
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Here you go, $40k in 2001, now worth $2000-$3000 secondhand. Toyota Corolla on the same site, $22k in 2001, currently $2000-$3450. I'll have the Corolla every day of the week thanks.
Tesla Model Y, $98k+ORC, 1997kg empty, 604km range, made in China. I thought that site had a finance calculator but I can't find it. WestPac have a car finance calculator that only goes up to $100,000, and they knock the rate down from 6% to 5% for electric or hybrid. So you'd pay $119k over seven years at $1415 per month. Paying an extra $20k to drive a car you don't own - that makes no sense to me at all. And because you don't own it you also have to have comprehensive insurance on it so the real owner doesn't lose out if you destroy it.
People will certainly want personal transport, but I don't think it will be viable to own them. And if people aren't owning and licencing them who will pay to maintain the road infrastructure? It's already falling apart.
Of course, if people believe that being in debt to rent a vehicle owned by a bank is "progress" then it may drag on for a bit.