I watched Putins so called Celebration Day ceremony.

[mchughcb]

Is that my problem?

[Lazarus]

No, actually, I've just realised that you're right, it's not.

If presenting to the world as a Kafkaesque figure is your raison d'etre, fair enough, I suppose

[womble]

Well, finally the Ukrainians have got some lethal airpower:
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/uncategorized/zelensky-touched-by-kiwi-pms-offer-to-send-over-air-forces-doorless-cessna-206-and-two-revolvers-to-shoot-from-it/
They'll have the Rooskis booted out in no time.

Always good for a laugh. In all seriousness I hunt with one of the last official kiwi fighter pilots. After the F111 were returned he left the airforce and immigrated to Australia. NZ could defend itself but given its so far from anywhere I guess its a moot point.

Naah, heaps of kiwis fighting for Ukrain





And official support of course https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/increase-nz-support-ukraine#:~:text=%E2%80%9COver%20the%20past%20year%20New,and%20entities%2C%20and%20trade%20measures.

[Oldbloke]

Well, well. Good on the Kiwi's.

[mchughcb]

Raising a flag in the field means you are there. Raising the flag over the administration building means the city is captured.

[straightshooter]

Pretty good article regarding disinformation and Bakhmut

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/05/21/ ... -in-point/

but be careful because it could just be Russian propaganda.

[Lazarus]

For another view

https://usefulstooges.com/tag/gilbert-doctorow/

[womble]

Swift rebuttal. 11 minutes. Impressive.

[mchughcb]

Next city is being lined up by the steam roller. If they launch a counter offensive with no air support the outcome will be the same as the belgorod border raid yesterday.

[mchughcb]

For another view

https://usefulstooges.com/tag/gilbert-doctorow/

It's not another view of the events being described.

[Lazarus]

Sorry, another view of the preceeding article

[mchughcb]

Prigozhin said today approximately 50K Ukrainians KIA and 70K WIA in Bakhmut.
That is big chunk of the UA.

[womble]

Well he’s of good reputable character too then

[womble]

The steam roller has gained 850 sq km’s since December.
Less than 0.1 percent of Ukraine.
The west can do this indefinitely.
This is just a rerun of the Finnish war. The winter war. Same tactics, just keep throwing bodies at it until we get what we want.
And it took Russia years to recognise and honour their fallen. Every few years they’d update it, yeah ok we did lose more, we lied. There’s no doubt Russian casualties will be of the charts.
But inevitably you have to start sending kids from the more well of Russians. You run out of mongs from the outer provinces. Families who live in Moscow sending their kids. No chance. They’ll just send them abroad.

All the meanwhile what is Russia achieving. Disarming Ukraine, far from it. NATO keeps gaining new members ramping up its capabilities. Probably don’t even need US support to contain Russia now. Great to have that support but the need to rely on it is dissipating fast. Russia hasn’t changed and will always be a threat to its neighbours.
It’s hurting the Russian middle and upper classes. Young people are leaving in droves. Industries are leaving in droves. The long game doesn’t look great for Russia.
They sustained the winter war for about a year I think. The Finn’s did cede some territory. Took Russia a long time to get back in favour with the world. The price was too high. This is no different.

If they have taken charge and asserted control quickly, like they did with Belarus, no problems. But they didn’t. And they lost all their best, all their special forces straight of the bat. And they’re in a real pickle now. Relying on mercinaries to fill that gap. And keep digging themselves into a deeper hole. There’s no win in sight. There’s no conceivable end goal. It’s just madness and probably will be solved with poison as is their custom.

[Lazarus]

Hear, hear.

Xi has played Putin like an expendable pawn in his game of geopolitical chess.

Sun Tzu's mantra of getting your enemies to destroy themselves, played perfectly, and a historic adversary brings about their own ruin.
Leaving all those resources, just over the border, as ripe fruit.

[mchughcb]

Well he’s of good reputable character too then

For information he's been fairly accurate.
He's even split out his Wagner causalities noting
kia and lia between the prisoners recruited and his standard troops. You had a 20% chance as a prisoner recruit of Kia, 20% chance of lia, and 60% chance of surviving unscratched.

[Lazarus]

It seems Puin is more worried about the Russian people than he is about the Ukrainians.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-25/ ... /102387456

[mchughcb]

Nope.

[mchughcb]

Hear, hear.

Xi has played Putin like an expendable pawn in his game of geopolitical chess.

Sun Tzu's mantra of getting your enemies to destroy themselves, played perfectly, and a historic adversary brings about their own ruin.
Leaving all those resources, just over the border, as ripe fruit.

Really? 5000 nukes into China. China isn't invading Russia any time soon.

[mchughcb]

The steam roller has gained 850 sq km’s since December.
Less than 0.1 percent of Ukraine.
The west can do this indefinitely.
This is just a rerun of the Finnish war. The winter war. Same tactics, just keep throwing bodies at it until we get what we want.
And it took Russia years to recognise and honour their fallen. Every few years they’d update it, yeah ok we did lose more, we lied. There’s no doubt Russian casualties will be of the charts.
But inevitably you have to start sending kids from the more well of Russians. You run out of mongs from the outer provinces. Families who live in Moscow sending their kids. No chance. They’ll just send them abroad.

All the meanwhile what is Russia achieving. Disarming Ukraine, far from it. NATO keeps gaining new members ramping up its capabilities. Probably don’t even need US support to contain Russia now. Great to have that support but the need to rely on it is dissipating fast. Russia hasn’t changed and will always be a threat to its neighbours.
It’s hurting the Russian middle and upper classes. Young people are leaving in droves. Industries are leaving in droves. The long game doesn’t look great for Russia.
They sustained the winter war for about a year I think. The Finn’s did cede some territory. Took Russia a long time to get back in favour with the world. The price was too high. This is no different.

If they have taken charge and asserted control quickly, like they did with Belarus, no problems. But they didn’t. And they lost all their best, all their special forces straight of the bat. And they’re in a real pickle now. Relying on mercinaries to fill that gap. And keep digging themselves into a deeper hole. There’s no win in sight. There’s no conceivable end goal. It’s just madness and probably will be solved with poison as is their custom.

50,000 crims recruited with a potential pardon against a NATO supported army and they won.

And the guy that won and hoisted the flag has given a detailed breakdown of the body count on both sides. When the 300,000 reservists that have been training for a year mobilise its not going to be good.

[Lazarus]

Hear, hear.

Xi has played Putin like an expendable pawn in his game of geopolitical chess.

Sun Tzu's mantra of getting your enemies to destroy themselves, played perfectly, and a historic adversary brings about their own ruin.
Leaving all those resources, just over the border, as ripe fruit.

Really? 5000 nukes into China. China isn't invading Russia any time soon.

I didn't say anything about invading. The Chinese aren't silly like Putin.

What I meant was, if Putin's war does enough damage to Russia, his "dear friend" Xi will use Russia 's diminution as the perfect lever to gain access to said resources at bargain prices.

The Chinese are very patient and very intricate in their strategic thinking.

Their attempt to intimidate us with trade sanctions, was an example of "kill the chicken to scare the monkeys".
They were sending a wider message.

[mchughcb]

What a steam roller looks like

https://youtu.be/kFaNjvh5Zo0

[womble]

I’m not watching your perverted video of innocent peaceful people being slaughtered
Have a nice day

[mchughcb]

I’m not watching your perverted video of innocent peaceful people being slaughtered
Have a nice day

Your choice. The video shows a territorial map of opposing armies.

[Lazarus]

Russia is so confident in their "steamroller" they have to use the nuke card, again.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-26/ ... /102395632

[S O K A R]

Russia is so confident in their "steamroller" they have to use the nuke card, again.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-26/ ... /102395632

I'm not sure continuation of a previously conceived plan counts as "fresh threats" of using nuclear weapons....

[Lazarus]

Russia is so confident in their "steamroller" they have to use the nuke card, again.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-26/ ... /102395632

I'm not sure continuation of a previously conceived plan counts as "fresh threats" of using nuclear weapons....

I made no meantion of the threat being "fresh", just being aired again.

However, at that level, everything is considered for its message value.

The repeated announcement of that previously conceived plan is another showing of the original threat card.

[Lazarus]

Prigozhin, so it's either an officially sanctioned message or he's about to get clumsy around windows.
My money is on the former.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... in-bakhmut

[mchughcb]

Russia is so confident in their "steamroller" they have to use the nuke card, again.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-26/ ... /102395632

I'm not sure continuation of a previously conceived plan counts as "fresh threats" of using nuclear weapons....

Correct.

[mchughcb]

Prigozhin, so it's either an officially sanctioned message or he's about to get clumsy around windows.
My money is on the former.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... in-bakhmut

Guardian quoting Ukrainian officials they still hold Bakhmut.