Another unbiased firearms article (?)

[rossfrb]

It is my belief that this article is deceptive in the way the information and arguments have been presented.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/port-ar ... 57ml7.html Professor Joel Negin is the head of the School of Public Health in the University of Sydney’s Faculty of Medicine and Health.
The author has been able to provide statistics at either an Australian national level for the incidence of mass shootings, average annual firearms related deaths and at a single state level (NSW) for suicides, but then reverts to International studies WRT domestic partner homicides. Does this indicate a lack of data at state or federal levels or is he cherry picking facts to suit his narrative? They then state that the proportion of Australians owning guns has dropped by about half between 1997 (population ~18.53 million) and 2020 (population ~25.59 million), and the number of registered firearms in Australia now exceeds 3.5 million without stating how many firearms were estimated at 1997 and without referencing the increase in population and what the 2 proportions are from 1997 to 2020. To me there is no attempt to make a comparison but to imply that there are now more guns in Australia and that less Australians own guns but that those people who own guns – now own lots more guns. Am I reading this wrong?
I find these following statements to be misleading, deceptive and lacking any foundation in factual evidence or logic “NFA-prohibited gun silencers, whose main advantage is to criminals, are creeping back in. Previously banned semi-automatic and other rapid-fire weapons and their ammunition are now more available to those who want them.”
More available than when or by what measure?
There is the obligatory reference to powerful lobby groups without any evidence.
Then there is an attempt to link gaps in different (state?) gun registration systems with a firearms black market, without any mention of the leakage of weapons onto said black market via military or police channels. This including thefts and police mismanagement. And no mention the role illegal imports may play.
Sigh

[Bugman]

Have a look at his Bio at Sydney University. He has really no knowledge of gun control but is another participant of "how to lie with statistics" He is part of the School of Public Health, along with another ill informed academic Phillip Alpers. What do you expect?

[No1Mk3]

G'day,
It is a simple fact that far less owners exist in Australia than did in before the buy-back, and that we own a lot more firearms. Just about everyone had a 22 or shotgun, perhaps Grandads old 303 in the wardrobe before '96 who handed them in whilst those of us who lost our SLR's Mini 14's & SPAS12's etc replaced them with 2 or more bolt actions. So numbers of owners dropped and quantity increased. This is well known, and puts the lie to Anti's claim of "more guns = more crime". The rest is normal gun-grabbers diatribe from aspects of the medical quarter (remember the AMA Presidents rant against us?) Perhaps we need a Doctors with Guns group? I know a few medicos who shoot, but alas they are more intellectually honest than Prof. Negin, Cheers.

[on_one_wheel]

Gotta love cherry picked statistics.

Here's another beautiful cherry picked statistic.

Wide spread statistical data collecttion across Ethiopia, United States, Europe and Australia has proven that countries that consume icecream have a 1:10,000,000 chance of suffer from famines.
Countries where icecream is not widely consumed have a 1:5 chance of falling in to wide spread famine in the next 2 years.

Eat your icecream folks, its saving us from starvation.

[disco stu]

Spurious correlations website has some nice data also

[womble]

There’s some truths in there mixed with some lies. Truths being less people owning more registered firearms. Reduction in firearm suicide. But the lies are absolute doozies.

2nd paragraph, no mass shootings since port Arthur. Particularly insensitive lie. There’s been about 8.

Same paragraph average 3.6 firearms deaths per 100,000 for 17 years prior port Arthur. That’s a lie. Did’nt reach that in the worst year, average would have been around 2.5 . At least half of which would have been suicides sadly. The other half we had very trigger happy police throughout the 80’s, 90’s particularly in victoria.
So realistically yes we have prevented suicides, but taking that out of the equation per population possibly less than current figures or about equal to todays.

Moving onto the next paragraph he name drops john edwards to make a point. Well s**t Joel, no-one in their right mind would have given edwards a gun. But the police commissioner did. So hardly making his point there.

Next paragraph we have “silencers”. I think Joel’s been watching too many Hollywood movies. “Main advantage to criminals”. No that’s not what they are and or what they are designed for.

The he just pulls some s**t out of his ass about “international” domestics and suicides which i won’t even bother with because wtf is he smoking.

Next we have “ criminals exploiting gaps in the different gun registration systems in the various Australian jurisdictions to funnel firearms into the black market “... ummm no that’s just total garbage.

Then he saves the most bizarre statement for last, suggesting that registered firearms move into the black market.

Final sentence- “ support those struggling with mental health will all help reduce firearm violence in our community and keep Australians safe.”
WTAF.
Firearm violence in Australia is gang related, organised crime, drug dealers. Their mental health is self induced and we should not support them, obviously.

[womble]

Murdock will be flooding us with this crap for at least the next month
“Protect and be proud of our sacred gun control”
John the dog Howard said as much at the port Arthur memorial.

Because here comes a tidal wave of PTA’s and new applications. How can the government justify a freeze on them when the maturbators themselves are telling us to prepare for war. We’re obligated to defend Taiwan. We have no out, signed and sealed.
Guess where the allies refuel, our top end. Guess what the enemy wants to take out.

so not so great when you’ve disarmed you’re population.

[disco stu]

I think he deliberately choose 5 killed as the baseline because then he would be able to (incorrectly) state that none have happened. If 4 was chosen then there is a reasonable amount to choose from.

Just reading the stats, we need to really licence knife owners

[Baronvonrort]

I think he deliberately choose 5 killed as the baseline because then he would be able to (incorrectly) state that none have happened. If 4 was chosen then there is a reasonable amount to choose from.

Just reading the stats, we need to really licence knife owners

Simon Chapman from Sydney Uni redefined mass shootings to 5 or more killed not including the offender.

When they talk about the USA they use Gun Violence Archive which counts 4 or more shot their numbers also include defensive gun use against home invaders, robbers and rapists GVA include those to boost their numbers.

It's dishonest to use different definitions for mass shootings when comparing countries Mother Jones has tracked mass shootings in the US they say 124 since 1982 if we use 5 or more killed then it drops to 96 since 1982.in the US.

The gun grabbers use whatever definition suits their agenda as the sheeple are too stupid to do their own research.

Everytown who count school shootings have also included shootings that happened at 2am when no students were at school and have also counted shootings in schools that have been closed for over a year with no students. Many of the schools mentioned in those numbers could not confirm shootings actually happened in their schools.

[Baronvonrort]

There’s some truths in there mixed with some lies. Truths being less people owning more registered firearms. Reduction in firearm suicide. But the lies are absolute doozies.

2nd paragraph, no mass shootings since port Arthur. Particularly insensitive lie. There’s been about 8.

Same paragraph average 3.6 firearms deaths per 100,000 for 17 years prior port Arthur. That’s a lie. Did’nt reach that in the worst year, average would have been around 2.5 . At least half of which would have been suicides sadly. The other half we had very trigger happy police throughout the 80’s, 90’s particularly in victoria.
So realistically yes we have prevented suicides, but taking that out of the equation per population possibly less than current figures or about equal to todays.



Next paragraph we have “silencers”. I think Joel’s been watching too many Hollywood movies. “Main advantage to criminals”. No that’s not what they are and or what they are designed for.

.

We have twice as many firearm licenses and registered firearms now than we had in 1996 while our population has increased from 18 to 24 million people. The Crimtrac database on page 63 shows numbers here is an older one showing yearly increases. Later issues show over 2 million firearm licenses with over 6 million registered firearms. https://www.acic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-08/crimtrac_ar_2015-16_final_071016.pdf

Firearm deaths have been decreasing since 1980 the military style guns we banned were used in 27 of the 813 firearm homicides from 1980-1995 or just over 1% of all firearm deaths in that time period. https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/productsbyCatalogue/9C85BD1298C075EACA2568A900139342?OpenDocument#:~:text=During%20the%20reference%20period%2C%201980,76%20(see%20Technical%20Note).

As for silencers becoming legal in NSW it appears only professional shooters are getting permits for them. Here is a study on silencers by Edith Cowan University it mentions criminals don't use them even where they're legal.
https://ro.ecu.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1857&context=ecuworks2011

[womble]

Good information Baron, thanks.

Basing any stats on the number of registered firearms here is totally ridiculous anyway.
We don’t know how may firearms were in the country prior 96. We don’t know now. Nobody knows. We know they’re increasing from customs seizures and police raids on illicit gun dealers.
I think the last amnesty was 2017, not widely advertised and around 65,000 guns were handed in. I’d assume unregistered mostly.
And because that was so telling they now just have an open amnesty.

The only information you can honestly draw from the number of registered firearms, is the number of law abiding people who want to do the right thing and follow the rules.
The harder you make the rules, the less people comply.

In Australia today, anyone who smokes weed has access to a drug dealer because weed is still illegal here.
And anyone who has access to a drug dealer can buy an unregistered gun.
Less people choose to licence and register because it’s heavily discouraged.

Only in Australia can you get a licence for a firearm you genuinely have need of, follow all the rules and regulations, meet all the requirements IF you are able, all the correct paperwork with stringent police checks and oversight. And then within the hour have that firearm banned and yourself be made a criminal.
That can and does happen here. And it’s unique to our country.

[Baronvonrort]

Good information Baron, thanks.

Basing any stats on the number of registered firearms here is totally ridiculous anyway.
We don’t know how may firearms were in the country prior 96. We don’t know now. Nobody knows. We know they’re increasing from customs seizures and police raids on illicit gun dealers.
I think the last amnesty was 2017, not widely advertised and around 65,000 guns were handed in. I’d assume unregistered mostly.
And because that was so telling they now just have an open amnesty.

The only information you can honestly draw from the number of registered firearms, is the number of law abiding people who want to do the right thing and follow the rules.

We have doubled the number of firearm licenses and registered firearms since 1996 to claim we have less owners per capita is absurd. I can drive past 2 gun shops going from Sydney to Bankstown airports that weren't there 25 years ago. The Shooters Fishers Farmers party control a large section of NSW west of the Blue mountains.

There is a shooting group that published numbers on semi autos imported before 1996 we had around 250,000 Ruger 10/22 with another 300,000 SKS imported. There were 640,000 firearms confiscated in 1996 have a look at the pics hard to see any semi auto centrefire of rimfire in the piles of guns the vast majority of semi autos handed in look like shotguns.

At 1 min 15 seconds NSW police minister says greater than 97% of all firearm crime is done by criminals with unregistered firearms. Did we need a registry to prove the theory criminals don't register their guns?] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKXLxKX8RgQ

The AR15 used at PA was handed in to police who said it was destroyed at Sims metal furnace.