A serious question.

[Baronvonrort]

One of the worry’s from what you posted above (link) - dr was tested several times and it came back negative...bloody hell. That dr knew he had it...but testing was showing negative? That’s a worry.

It was early days for that Dr they had to discover what was causing it then develop a test for it. We didn't have a test for the Kung Flu on the shelf we hade to make one.

There are some good researchers in China I don't doubt the research that says the first victim had no link to the Wuhan market these papers were saved so they couldn't be deleted. This research was done before the government tried to cover this up.

I don't believe the official numbers from China or Iran are anywhere near accurate.

I have seen numbers from 1.2 million infected with around 100K dead to millions dead in China from this.

This lady has some interesting things which go against the official story from China -https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1243367546272669702

Then you have stories like this- https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-covid-19-death-toll-21-million-cell-phones-disappeared-why-41580

I think the true infection numbers and deaths in China will be unknown.

[TassieTiger]

Z - I believe they were still testing him with dedicated lab tests appropriate to the disease / s aligned with covid, the fact that they had not yet developed an easily replicated vaccine, for world wide dissemination was a bit different - labs had reportedly replicated virus in 48 hours, in house is different - I’d assume this doc had applicable access to such testing. Maybe not...maybe. We will never know.

Some of those links r quite disturbing.

Lots of ? On a lot of info, from a lot of places...

[Baronvonrort]

Baron, mate what you are proposing is a very deeply flawed way to think.

Firstly that website is not a legitimate source, ie you or i can add in information... which can cause cases to be missed to doubled up.

So if you use your logic a person who wasn't tested as there wernt any tests available at that time due to shortages but had the symptoms doesn't have the crona virus (Even though they probably do)

To bring the whole circus to context, total deaths from cronavirus all over the world is less than 25,000 in 3 months. In Australia we have 3,500 cases and 14 deaths.

Nothing flawed in my way of thinking yet I see a lot of people who don't understand how this is calculated.

In Australia we have 170 recovered + 14 dead = 184 closed cases.

Therefore in closed cases where a patient has either recovered or died we are at 7.6% death rate from the Kung Flu with closed cases right now.

The infection numbers don't count for death rate because we don't know if these people are going to recover or die their outcome is unknown. When they recover or die then their numbers are added into the closed cases in recovered or dead.

The flaw in your thinking is looking at infection numbers thinking they have some relevance when the outcome of these people is unknown.

The global death rate including dodgy numbers from China and Iran is currently 17% with Australia at 7.6% of all cases where there has been an outcome.

[Sergeant Hartman]

Mate i dunno about all the conspirasory theories.

Having lived/born in a third world country, i suppose i think i can more easily think of what actually happened. While others might try and think like a western world where everything is done the right way.

So for me i can easily see how the local govt officials didn't want to appear like fools and annoy their higher ups unnecessarily, so tried to downplay or hide the situation. Not the first time thats happened or the last time it happens. Obviously in hindsight it was the wrong decision. But thinking about it, with air travel i am 100% before the first case was even registered to local doctor the virus had already traveled to USA, Europe etc.

[TassieTiger]

I agree. I think this variant was established well before wuhan. Just my 2 cents.

I don’t agree with the numbers baron is posting - or more so, numbers are correct - but calculus is flawed in trying to reach an outcome that’s just not there yet.

I ver heard the term - a system is only as good as its data? Or maybe “sh1t in equals sh1t out?
If you really want to consider a more accurate mortality rate, you DO need to factor in the most educated guess possible, pertaining to survivors, even that will be flawed but...

[Sergeant Hartman]

You are thinking of the term GIGO, garbage in garbage out.

I have been thinking about it like everyone. the second number that i looked at is the ratio of mild cases to severe cases... which is standing at 95 to 5% (was 96/4). So of the 95% of cases the expectation is almost all will survive. We have heard of many cases where people who have mild cases of cronavirus are told to self isolate at home (tom hanks as an example).

So logic of looking at what cases have recovered vs dead is not right. They don't do that in flu or any disease i know off

[Die Judicii]

All this aside, the stuff that is eaten and called food in China is mind boggling to say the least.
Dog, Cat, Bat, Birds Nest Soup (bird sh!t)

I mean,,,,,,,,, really,,,,,,,,,, about the only thing that I've never heard of them eating is,, Human Sh!t.
But then who really knows ???

[Baronvonrort]

I don’t agree with the numbers baron is posting - or more so, numbers are correct - but calculus is flawed in trying to reach an outcome that’s just not there yet.

I ver heard the term - a system is only as good as its data? Or maybe “sh1t in equals sh1t out?
If you really want to consider a more accurate mortality rate, you DO need to factor in the most educated guess possible, pertaining to survivors, even that will be flawed but...

This has nothing to do with calculus its simple primary school mathematics in working out percentages.

There is no guessing with this closed cases show a patient has recovered or died from this virus, so far we are at 7.6% dead.

Of those who are infected we don't know if they will recover or die that is why their cases are considered open, there are only 2 options for these open cases recovery or death.

If you think our 7.6% death rate is high you might get a shock looking at the death rates from closed cases in Italy or the US.

Italy has 10,950 recovered with 9134 dead, what percentage of those closed cases results in death?
USA has 2525 recovered with 1704 dead, what percentage of those closed cases results in death?

[TassieTiger]

Your correct baron, the primary school maths your utilising is X/y graph = %.

Step up to high school mate...theres no point in utilising “medically” recovered vs deaths without considering the big picture - it’s an insane logic, with an insane outcome - that YOU know it is not real and is irresponsible scare mongering at best.
Using your X/y calculations, of those that get cancer, with a “medical outcome”...it’s posdinle to show that 90% will die...because cancers often return, people fight cancer for years...but the reality is very different.

If you think the USA fatality rate will be 10% from CV19, as you have clearly eluded above, then I’m selling a weally bwig bridge in Swidney weally cheap if your interested....

[Baronvonrort]

You are thinking of the term GIGO, garbage in garbage out.

I have been thinking about it like everyone. the second number that i looked at is the ratio of mild cases to severe cases... which is standing at 95 to 5% (was 96/4). So of the 95% of cases the expectation is almost all will survive. We have heard of many cases where people who have mild cases of cronavirus are told to self isolate at home (tom hanks as an example).

So logic of looking at what cases have recovered vs dead is not right. They don't do that in flu or any disease i know off

I am surprised how many don't understand this.

The flaw in thinking of mild cases to severe cases is every severe case starts out as a mild case.

There are only 2 options for those infected which is recovery or death until then your case is considered open as there hasn't been an outcome.

Yes Tom Hanks did recover his case would be considered closed, I don't know if he was added in closed case recovered here or in the US.
Was he at home or did the ABC tell another whopper?
Would he have said to our hospital money is no problem do whatever you can?

Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson say they are taking coronavirus isolation "one day at a time" and have thanked Queensland Health staff.
The Hollywood duo were placed in isolation on Thursday at the Gold Coast University Hospital after testing positive to COVID-19.
In a social media post, Hanks and Wilson thanked "everyone here Down Under who are taking such good care of us".
A Queensland Health spokeswoman said on Friday morning all coronavirus patients at the Gold Coast University Hospital — including Hanks and Wilson — were in a stable condition.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-13/tom-hanks-coronavirus-isolation-queensland/12053576

[TassieTiger]

Your surprised at how many don’t understand it?

Maybe, just maybe - it’s you not understanding...walks like a duck?

The only time your X/y = mortality rate is going to make sense, is after the fact...

[Baronvonrort]

Your surprised at how many don’t understand it?

Maybe, just maybe - it’s you not understanding...walks like a duck?

The only time your X/y = mortality rate is going to make sense, is after the fact...

All of my uni friends who studied maths, science,engineering and medicine understand what I am saying. Those who did arts and gender studies have some difficulty with it along with those who only went to high school and/or Tafe.

If we look at Italy where the death rate is around 45% their deaths are running around 600+ deaths a day since march 21 which is 1 week ago with 919 deaths yesterday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

The US had 401 deaths on the 27th with only 113 on the 22nd.
- COVID-19 patients average time on ventilator: 11 - 21 days (vs. 3 - 4 days for non-COVID-19 patients). "We have patients that have been 20 days 30 days on a ventilator. The longer you are on a ventilator, the more likely you are not going get off a ventilator"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Most of the world has been shut down for this reason, does anyone think the governments around the world would have shut everything down if the death rate was only 0.4% like some claim?

This virus cannot enter your home unless someone brings it into your home.

[sungazer]

So what about the cases were the virus is not confirmed as it is mild and people stay at home for two weeks then go on to get better, completely avoiding any statistics that you are proposing.

Of course you are not paying attention to any of the stats from china where it is reported that 76,000 people have recovered and only 3,300 people have died.

All the BS that you are purporting about China is mostly BS there are a huge number of foreigners that are in china and can report back to people in their own country. Their are Australians still in Whuhan there are heaps of Chinese from Malaysia that set up companies in china for manufacturing, Chin ease from all over the world have moved back there to start up businesses. Of course there will be some under reporting but the numbers you are talking about are fiction they would be noticed. China has a very smart young population many educated abroad they are not indoctrinated quite the opposite the young university and ex uni students are very inquiring minds.

[Stix]

LMAO...!!!

Thats Gold...

Filter everyones blood through his veins & we'll all be cured...!!!...

[Sergeant Hartman]

Hmm maybe your friends started uni last year....or they like me Just give up arguing with you as you are not willing to listen or understand.

What about Australia 170 recovered and 14 decreased. Looks like Australia has 7% deaths....but you just said Italy has 45% What is our government hiding?

If you look at UK numbers, according to your logic seeing 735 dead and 135 recovered, means for every 7 pepple 6 will die.

You see the dumb in your logic?

[Blr243]

30 yrs ago we all thought that it was amazing that Keith was still here, now we just accept it and expect that he’ll be here forever. But one day I found out why..... it’s because of all the blood transfusions he is always haveing. Remembering that our bodies are mostly water , and that blood is made mostly of water , So after all this time Keith is no longer Keith , on the inside he’s a thousand different strong Young men ... the whiskey breath, stench of cigarettes and pale corpse like external skin is the only original part of Keith that remains ......and who amongst us now would dare prefer he sauntered onto the stage looking any different

[Baronvonrort]

So what about the cases were the virus is not confirmed as it is mild and people stay at home for two weeks then go on to get better, completely avoiding any statistics that you are proposing.

Of course you are not paying attention to any of the stats from china where it is reported that 76,000 people have recovered and only 3,300 people have died.

All the BS that you are purporting about China is mostly BS there are a huge number of foreigners that are in china and can report back to people in their own country. Their are Australians still in Whuhan there are heaps of Chinese from Malaysia that set up companies in china for manufacturing, Chin ease from all over the world have moved back there to start up businesses. Of course there will be some under reporting but the numbers you are talking about are fiction they would be noticed. China has a very smart young population many educated abroad they are not indoctrinated quite the opposite the young university and ex uni students are very inquiring minds.

How do we know those with mild cases actually had Covid-19 and not something else like the common flu if they don't get tested? Relaible statistics don't include suspected cases they rely on confirmed cases.

I have a Cuban cigar every now and then sometimes it gives me a sore throat with a cough yet I never thought to think of that as a symptom of the Kung Flu as it clears up pretty quickly

I think if someone suspected they had the Kung Flu they would be making an appointment to get tested.

I don't believe the official stats from China or Iran on this. I have a few sources from China and Iran who show with video evidence things are much worse than claimed by their governments. I did see an official sign translated by a Chinese friend showing 500,000 urns waiting to be picked up from recently cremated people. I asked him about a line of people outside a hospital he said they were going in for voluntary cremation..

[TassieTiger]

You you cannot make an appointment to get tested - as previous, the criteria is pretty darn tight regardless of symptoms.

You can bOunce figures around until your blue but mate, they are totally meaningless - if a 10% fatality rate was imminent as you’ve suggested or USA - ppl would be in more than lockdown lol.

In fact, your actually highlighting the exact issue encountered by real world ppl vs uni students who know it all by theory...

There are 3650 cases in AU with 14 deaths...of those 3650, only 12 are reported apparently as serious, so heaven forbid, they pass - that equates to 26 deaths vs 3650 cases = 0.7%

[Baronvonrort]

Hmm maybe your friends started uni last year....or they like me Just give up arguing with you as you are not willing to listen or understand.

What about Australia 170 recovered and 14 decreased. Looks like Australia has 7% deaths....but you just said Italy has 45% What is our government hiding?

If you look at UK numbers, according to your logic seeing 735 dead and 135 recovered, means for every 7 pepple 6 will die.

You see the dumb in your logic?

You're the one who is not willing to listen or understand you keep trying to fudge the numbers with people where the outcome is unknown for them then slag off anyone who doesn't follow your flawed logic.

I don't think our government is hiding anything on confirmed cases or deaths here, I think our death rate will increase over the next few weeks how high it goes I don't know it's still early days.

85% death rate in the UK for Kung Flu cases where outcome is known with only 15% recovery. How many of the other 13,649 diagnosed cases will recover or die we don't know.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

This virus doesn't kill people overnight it takes a few weeks, 3 weeks ago none of us would have predicted this worldwide lockdown we're currently in.

There are no flaws in my logic can you see the flaws in your logic which I have pointed out?

[Sergeant Hartman]

^^^^but it would make me smile... and that's all that matters

[Sergeant Hartman]

This is behind a paywall, but the age do allow a few free articles evey week. A good article explaining how the virus originated.

Remember medical companies are in it to make money so they will not make a vaccine for a virus that isn't spread.. hence the calls Government should be spending money on creating vaccine

https://www.theage.com.au/national/we-s ... 54elr.html

[sungazer]

You you cannot make an appointment to get tested - as previous, the criteria is pretty darn tight regardless of symptoms.

You can bOunce figures around until your blue but mate, they are totally meaningless - if a 10% fatality rate was imminent as you’ve suggested or USA - ppl would be in more than lockdown lol.

In fact, your actually highlighting the exact issue encountered by real world ppl vs uni students who know it all by theory...

There are 3650 cases in AU with 14 deaths...of those 3650, only 12 are reported apparently as serious, so heaven forbid, they pass - that equates to 26 deaths vs 3650 cases = 0.7%

Exactly you can have every one of the Covid symptoms but unless you have been overseas or have been in direct contact with a know positive case you will not be tested that is unless you are the PM or Royalty and even then questions are asked why.

[Bill]

Happy to sell you a test kit but it will cost you as minimum order is 50 plus postage Oh you need a lab too

[Die Judicii]

Now listen up you blokes,,,,,, for SOME peace of mind,,, why not simply agree to disagree, before the Mods move in and shut everything down.
I believe we are all entitled to an opinion, but try not to labor points indefinitely.
Just my 2 cents worth.

[TassieTiger]

DJ. There’s no name calling, it’s thus far been a decent debate, free from gutter calling like many other banned threads, and it’s over a current and leading matter...and besides, Bazzas wrong lol lol lol. Well not wrong, just...misguided.
Here’s proof.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.bus ... 2020-3/amp

This is how the REST of the world is calculating death rate, but for some reason, Baz is focusing on something very very different.

[Baronvonrort]

DJ. There’s no name calling, it’s thus far been a decent debate, free from gutter calling like many other banned threads, and it’s over a current and leading matter...and besides, Bazzas wrong lol lol lol. Well not wrong, just...misguided.
Here’s proof.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.bus ... 2020-3/amp

This is how the REST of the world is calculating death rate, but for some reason, Baz is focusing on something very very different.

Well you found something on the internet it must be right because you think those journalists and everyone who agrees with you on this are right despite the fact they're actually wrong in calculating this.Like I said it's amazing how many get this wrong.

I will just cite a little bit I think the mathematics here in dealing with something like this is beyond most if not all of you. take note of the source and the topic with calculating something like this which they use SARS another Coronavirus as the example

Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease

Abstract

During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China.

The epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 showed how rapidly new infectious diseases can spread. Within a month of its recognition, SARS had spread worldwide, with epidemics occurring in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, and Canada (1). Although the worldwide case incidence remained relatively low (8,098 cases), relatively high mortality (774 deaths) resulted in widespread concern and alarm, sometimes to the point of panic, in the populations affected (2, 3). Coupled with the economic costs resulting from restriction of movement placed on the affected countries (4), the epidemic highlighted the need for a rapid international response to disease control. More recently, the outbreak of H5N1 influenza in birds in southeast Asia has again reinforced the potential for pandemic spread of newly emerging or evolving infectious agents.

During an outbreak of a novel or emerging infectious agent such as SARS, one of the most important epidemiologic quantities to be determined is the case fatality ratio—the proportion of cases who eventually die from the disease.

This ratio is often estimated by using aggregate numbers of cases and deaths at a single time point, such as those compiled daily by the World Health Organization during the course of the SARS epidemic (5).
However, simple estimates of the case fatality ratio obtained from these reports can be misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a nonnegligible proportion of patients.

In this paper, we show how to estimate the case fatality ratio during the course of an epidemic by adapting the Kaplan-Meier method for use with two outcomes—death and recovery.

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647

Does this say using numbers from an aggregate number of cases and deaths can be misleading if at the time of analysis the outcome is unknown for a nonnegligible proportion of patients?

Does it suggest when the outcome is unknown for a nonnegligible proportion of patients then another method is required like the Kaplan-Meier method using 2 outcomes death and recovery?

With 3451 current open cases with 23 in a serious or critical condition and 3428 in a mild condition with unknown outcomes it's fair to say that is a nonnegligible proportion of patients when we have 14 deaths with 170 recovered.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

For those who don't understand the maths in my link just look at closed cases with an outcome around the world which are death and recovery, for those who can do the maths they will realise why NY is bringing in refrigerated trucks for temporary morgues and other countries are converting ice skating venues for temporary morgues.

If the patient lasts 3 weeks after being diagnosed without being intubated or put on a ventilator the chances of recovery are good. this virus infects your lungs when they intubate and put you on a ventilator it's probably going to result in death.

We had 450 new cases today this time next week we will probably be over 5000 cases, the numbers of those in a serious or critical condition will not decline they will increase yet numbers of recovered and dead will.

I can agree to disagree there is no point arguing on the internet people either get it or they don't

[TassieTiger]

So let me get this right - I’ve found on the internet, an article supporting a well established, generally and widely accepted method of calculating a death ratio associated with a pandemic, one that is aligned with the WORLD Health Organisation, the worlds media and worlds govts and because it doesn’t align with your thinking - then it’s apparently wrong... but you’ve found a left of field “internet” paper, that because it has found by you and meets your criteria - it’s correct? Can you see how crazy that is? So in your opinion, your saying journalists, the WHO, govt ststicisns, etc “don’t get it”?

your sighting that our cases will increase, probably over 5000 by next week, the number of serious cases will increase - but you are completely ignoring the ever increasing positive results of those ppl that will be fine...?

Okay. So ill play the game.
You’ve nominated that if people last over 3 weeks with this virus, then chances of recovery are good. Something that’s been pretty well established.

So given what we all know Re recent no’s, predictive numbers, etc There’s clearly a mathematical equation to estimate fatalities, So -what’s your prediction for % death rate in au next week?

[Sergeant Hartman]

Baron you haven't explained the abnormality that i found. Can you explain that please i am waiting to learn from you

[Baronvonrort]

So let me get this right - I’ve found on the internet, an article supporting a well established, generally and widely accepted method of calculating a death ratio associated with a pandemic, one that is aligned with the WORLD Health Organisation, the worlds media and worlds govts and because it doesn’t align with your thinking - then it’s apparently wrong... but you’ve found a left of field “internet” paper, that because it has found by you and meets your criteria - it’s correct? Can you see how crazy that is? So in your opinion, your saying journalists, the WHO, govt ststicisns, etc “don’t get it”?

your sighting that our cases will increase, probably over 5000 by next week, the number of serious cases will increase - but you are completely ignoring the ever increasing positive results of those ppl that will be fine...?

Okay. So ill play the game.
You’ve nominated that if people last over 3 weeks with this virus, then chances of recovery are good. Something that’s been pretty well established.

So given what we all know Re recent no’s, predictive numbers, etc There’s clearly a mathematical equation to estimate fatalities, So -what’s your prediction for % death rate in au next week?

Yes it is wrong to calculate death rate by number of infected vs deaths with a large number of unresolved cases that will give you a misleading result because those who calculate it this way are assuming every one of those open cases will recover with no increase in deaths. Do you understand the flaw in calculating this way which is assuming every single infected case will recover?

I am surprised how many cannot understand this and get it wrong while insisting they're right, we have a huge number of open cases with infected we don't know what the outcome for them will be to assume they will all recover is wrong when the evidence clearly shows that will not be the case.

We don't know what the result will be for the open cases it gets very complicated trying to predict the outcome for them. The closed cases when outcome is known with recovery or death give a much clearer picture and can be calculated easily by recovery or death for those infected in closed cases.

As for our death rate I predict it will rise from the current 7.6% next week and get even bigger the week after.

I would suggest the government experts have right advice that is why we're in lockdown around the world they don't follow the dodgy methods that many assume is right in coming up with their much smaller number for death rate because they saw it on the internet.

As for WHO they're as bad if not more useless than the UN..

[TassieTiger]

Baron - given your modelling, and the fact ppl don’t “recover” what’s the death rate for AIDS patients ? Surely, you have to conclude its 100% under your modelling?
Same with every disease where people don’t fully recover??