Zappa wrote:All very good info and appreciate the links.
I've been shooting for a while and have been lurking here a bit. The last powder scarcity I remember was with covid not mention the primers.
So what's causing the powder scarcity right now? Would the new products from ADI alleviate some of that ? Is it an import regulation issue? Has there ever been an abundance of powder enough to satisfy the market demands ? Ever ?
Conspiracy buffs might say that the government is restricting the supply so that people don't stock up.
As Oldbloke says, ADI screwed up. It seems the government wanted ADI to move away from double-base powders (which use nitroglycerine) and switch to single-base powders. All of their fastest powders - the AP/AS series - used for pistol and shotgun loading were double-base so all had to be reformulated, and will never be made again. They amalgamated the two series' into one line, the APS series of powders. But this required a new production line. This seems to be where they screwed the pooch. Instead of setting up a new line alongside the existing line, they replaced the existing double-base line with the new single-base line, so there was no way to revert if it failed, which it did. Initially they were able to produce some APS powders, and get them to market, but they soon discovered issues with the quality control of the new processes, shut down production, destroyed tons of powder, and concentrated on rifle powders while trying to sort the issues, probably an easy decision under covid lockdowns. My _guess_ is that the cost and red tape involved in setting up an additional production line is what caused them to take this risk.
So, it's nothing to do with importation regs, or wars, or the government trying to stop us from shooting, it was a poor management decision by Thales/ADI, probably for cost reasons.
There is an outlier though in AR2205. This is ADI's fastest rifle powder, fast enough that it is also useful in many pistol chamberings. It's single-base so should have been entirely unaffected by this situation. However, it also disappeared from the market at about the same time. Their are fairly credible reports that it is still in production (though perhaps not to the standard required for our consumer market) as it is used in the boosting charge of some ordnance systems, mainly mortars I think. Several people, including myself, have asked ADI several times about AR2205 without receiving any response.
Yes, there were no issues with pistol/shotshell powder supplies up until around 2020 when ADI had this situation. Covid exacerbated it by making importation of other suitable powders almost impossible until last year when at least three companies started bringing in small imports of pistol powders from Europe off their own bats, and at great expense, which is why they're so expensive. There has been some disruption to ADI's rifle powders as well but to a much lesser extent, their common rifle powders have remained in production throughout. I believe there have been distribution issues caused by changes in some states regarding transporting smokeless powders so all powder can be difficult to get in some places, you may have to travel.
Now, on top of this, it was reported two months ago that China and Russia have stopped exporting their production of nitrocellulose, which is the major component of smokeless powders. Alliant were the first I'm aware of to publicly announce that this would significantly affect their production of powders. Thailand and India are also large producers of nitrocellulose (it's used in inks and paints as well) so I would think there is a source there outside of Chinese/Russian sanctions but whether they can supply the huge amounts needed by powder manufacturers around the world seems unlikely.
Primer shortages started around 2021 I think, with a dearth of pistol primers across the country, and in many places overseas. That didn't really matter here once it became apparent that we didn't have pistol powders anyway. But production ramped up in other countries and quickly sorted that. Then we saw a lack of small rifle primers in 2022, and then large rifle primers in 2023 became scarce. Small rifle are back on shelves but large rifle are still difficult to get. What you might find is product we haven't seen here before, imported from South America and Europe. But reports from the US indicate that primer production is picking up so hopefully it won't be a problem for much longer. If ADI is able to get the APS powders back online everything will be honky dory again
I forgot to mention rimfire ammo. .22LR ammo started seeing supply issues around 2021 as well, due to lack of import, probably due to time/cost factors under covid lockdowns around the world. Last year we started seeing imports of .22LR ammo we hadn't seen before, like Aguila, and some manufacturers still aren't being imported, Federal for example I haven't seen for some years. The manufacturers have made statements that they are producing more .22LR ammo than has ever been made before but it still isn't enough for demand. It's possible that demand soared under covid, especially in the US, with lots and lots of people deciding they needed to get into shooting, and they needed to stockpile enough ammo to see them through any future disruptions to society. But I think the supply of .22LR ammo here has mostly settled. I'm about to order some more cases so I'll find out next week I guess
Choice depends on what you're aiming for. For ISSF-style target shooting my understanding is you want to minimise recoil so loads are generally light, so light bullets at low-ish velocities, but with semi-auto pistols you are limited to some degree as you need to make enough pressure to cycle the action. I preferred 147gn and 124gn bullets when I was shooting IPSC but some prefer 115gn bullets, though you can go even lighter than that. You'll also need to decide whether you want to, or are allowed to, run jacketed, plated, copper/brass bullets or have to stick with cast bullets only - my club only allows cast and has apparently had frame damage from hardcast powder-coated bullets.
