The Australian Defence Force capability.

[Oldbloke]

AUKUS. Will we actually get the subs?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-05/ ... /103534664

[Lazarus]

I hope when he gets in the next potus will torpedo the sub deal.

[Oldbloke]

I hope when he gets in the next potus will torpedo the sub deal.

Why?

[Lazarus]

I hope when he gets in the next potus will torpedo the sub deal.

Why?

Well OB, I feel that with the 300+ billion for the subs we won't see for decades if ever, while sh!t is in the process of hitting the fan right now, we would be served far better and quicker by purchasing stocks of long range cruise and ballistic missiles and the license to produce them here.

[alexjones]

I feel like F the subs. We need drones and missiles now. War with China by 2030 is my bet. Not a cold war either. Fully hot hot.

Keep in mind this year in October marks the 75 anniversary of the Chinese revolution. See what they do in regards to Taiwan.

[Lazarus]

Yep

[Oldbloke]

I hope when he gets in the next potus will torpedo the sub deal.

Why?

Well OB, I feel that with the 300+ billion for the subs we won't see for decades if ever, while sh!t is in the process of hitting the fan right now, we would be served far better and quicker by purchasing stocks of long range cruise and ballistic missiles and the license to produce them here.

More or less my thoughts too. Too late coming.

[Lazarus]

It just seems from my, admittedly layman, view that Defence has been in love with complex high dollar projects that look fantastic in a powerpoint presentation, or on paper, but when it comes time for reality we get the same things every time, cost overruns, time delays.

Sure, the same issues will inevitably plague a missle program, or as alexjones said, drones, but missiles and drones, even big ones are orders of magnitude less complex than Virginia class boats.

It's similar to gun manufacturing in Germany and Russia during ww2.
The Germans made technically brilliant weapons but they were more complex than they needed to be and took longer to make whereas Stalin made cheap stamped metal guns and simple artillery by the millions.

KIS

[alexjones]

It just seems from my, admittedly layman, view that Defence has been in love with complex high dollar projects that look fantastic in a powerpoint presentation, or on paper, but when it comes time for reality we get the same things every time, cost overruns, time delays.

Sure, the same issues will inevitably plague a missle program, or as alexjones said, drones, but missiles and drones, even big ones are orders of magnitude less complex than Virginia class boats.

It's similar to gun manufacturing in Germany and Russia during ww2.
The Germans made technically brilliant weapons but they were more complex than they needed to be and took longer to make whereas Stalin made cheap stamped metal guns and simple artillery by the millions.

KIS

I believe it was Stalin who said "quantity has a quality of its own". The Soviets made so many T34 tanks that a lot of times the German tanks would run out of ammo and would have to withdraw from the field to rearm. Even though they would destroy 5 or 10 tanks for every one they lost the Soviets just had an endless supply of tanks. And with the factories in the Urals they were out of range of German bombers.

The Germans are renowned for over engineering. Making things expensive to produce and needing a lot of maintenance.

[alexjones]

We are seeing it in Ukraine now cheap drones worth hundreds of dollars destroying million dollar tanks. Just like in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Farmers with cheap AKs destroying million dollar equipment.

Sometimes simplicity is best.

[Oldbloke]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/01/worl ... =url-share


Why More American Weapons Will Soon Be Made Outside America
With the wars in Ukraine and Gaza straining U.S. arsenals, Washington is seeking to expand production with global partners like Australia.

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Ammunition being made at the Benalla munitions factory in rural Australia.CreditCredit...By Matthew Abbott

By Damien Cave
Reporting from Mulwala, Benalla and Orchard Hills, Australia

March 1, 2024
On the grassy plains of Australia’s vast interior, an industrial evolution in the American war machine is gathering momentum. In munitions factories with room to grow, Australia is on the verge of producing heaps of artillery shells and thousands of guided missiles in partnership with American companies.

Made to Pentagon specifications, the weapons will be no different from those built in the United States, and only some of what rolls off the line will stay in Australia. The rest are intended to help replenish U.S. stockpiles or be sold to American partners in an era of grinding ground wars and threats from major powers.

It is all part of an Australian push to essentially become the 51st state for defense production, an ambitious vision that is now taking shape with a giant yellow mixer for explosives and a lightning-protected workshop for assembling missiles known as GMLRS — or “gimmlers.”

“We’re not buying a commodity, we’re investing in an enterprise,” said Brig. Andrew Langford, the Australian director general responsible for domestic manufacturing of guided weapons and explosives. “And that’s where it’s really novel.”

Image
The Benalla munitions factory makes a variety of ordnance, including artillery shells and large bombs.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times
The embrace of joint production reflects a wider awakening in Washington and other capitals: The United States by itself cannot make enough of the weapons needed for protracted warfare and deterrence. Vulnerable partners like Taiwan are already facing delayed orders for American equipment even as China’s military capabilities continue to grow.

So while the Pentagon waits for changes to Cold War-era laws that prioritize protecting — not sharing — military technology, and as the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts push U.S. factories to their limits, officials are leading a worldwide campaign to make more American weapons with friendly nations.

Poland, Japan and India are a few of the countries in various phases of production partnerships. But Australia, the closest of U.S. allies, having fought alongside Americans in every conflict since World War I, has gone further and faster with the Defense Department and U.S. contractors like Lockheed Martin.

Together, they are testing a more collective approach that demands greater trust, investments in the billions of dollars, and cross-continental sharing of sensitive technology for American weapons systems, along with complex production and testing methods.

Image

The Benalla munitions factory is set on the grassy plains of Australia’s vast interior, with room to grow.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times
“We’re really pleased at the momentum and speed we’re generating with Australia,” said Bill LaPlante, the under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment. “Efforts like these act as a kind of blueprint for additional U.S. co-development, co-production and co-sustainment agreements around the world.”For Australia, a distant island of 26 million people, going first adds opportunity and stress.

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At a time when China’s military keeps leaping forward, with seemingly endless production lines for warships and missiles, Australia’s push into joint production could make the country more of a “porcupine,” with sharper defenses that would deter China or another adversary. It could also create a much bigger weapons export industry with a U.S. stamp of approval — Australian officials have been lobbying for a broad exemption to military export laws, a status only Canada has now.

“We are there to supplement, not supplant, the American industrial base,” said Pat Conroy, Australia’s minister for defense industry, who recently returned from a trip to Washington. “They should see this as an opportunity for us to be a second supply line.”

The risk is that the United States loses interest. Some Australian officials worry that their costly bet on American cooperation — which accelerated in 2021 with plans for nuclear-propelled submarines — could be endangered by another isolationist Trump presidency, or simply by an objection from a member of Congress who sees foreign factories as a threat to American jobs.

Image

Bombs for the Australian Air Force are also made at the Benalla munitions factory.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times
Image

Factory staff are not allowed to carry phones or other electronics into sensitive areas.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times
Analysts argue that weapons co-production will deliver the benefit of greater deterrence only if the manufacturing process advances with alacrity in Australia and around the region.

“There is strength in numbers,” said Charles Edel, the Australia chair and a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “but only if those numbers materialize rapidly and in sufficient quantity to give Beijing pause.”

Sign up for the Australia Letter Newsletter Conversation starters about Australia and insight on the global stories that matter most, sent weekly by the Times’s Australia bureau. Plus: heaps of local recommendations. Get it sent to your inbox.
Mr. LaPlante stressed that joint production agreements signaled a long-term commitment, with multiyear contracts for munitions. In Australia, it’s something of a revival: During World War II, the island hosted American troops and served as a military supply center.

That legacy can still be found at a factory in Mulwala, a small town a few hundred miles from Australia’s eastern coast where the United States shipped over the machinery for making weapons propellants in the 1940s to support Allied operations in the Pacific.

Video

Cartridges from Benalla go to the Australian military and other defense forces in the region.CreditCredit...By Matthew Abbott
One of the original buildings, with the musty smell of a museum, has photos on the walls from that era, but the rest of the complex points to the future.

Mulwala is a hub of Australia’s public-private explosives industry. It’s where the volatile materials that fill artillery, bombs and rifle rounds are made in heavy concrete buildings set far apart from each other and protected with hair-trigger alarms and wet floors to minimize static electricity.

Most of the 2,500-acre site is managed by Thales, a multinational defense contractor, which also oversees munition production at a second location nearby in Benalla. Both sit on government land with a large pastoral buffer that could allow for expansion during what Australian officials described as the “crawl, walk, run” process of collaborative manufacturing.

First, the United States and Australia are finalizing joint production of unguided 155-millimeter artillery shells, which Pentagon officials described as “an early win.”

Next, in the coming months, Lockheed Martin will start assembling GMLRS (Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System) with American components at a location where other missiles are maintained, ramping up from a few units to a few hundred.

Image

Thick concrete and natural barriers are standard at Australia’s munitions factories.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times
Image

Emergency slides are attached to many of the buildings that contain heavy explosives.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times
And as walking turns to running, Australia expects to be producing around 3,000 GMLRS per year with at least some local parts — most likely those that rely on “energetics,” a term that includes the explosives that are used to fly a missile and blow up its target.

“The intellectual knowledge is here,” said Col. Tony Watson, who is leading a program to upgrade government factories at Mulwala and Benalla. “So it’s easy to grow and expand.”

Production, by all accounts, will increase with caution. James Heading, director of programs for Lockheed Martin Australia’s missiles and fire control division, said that coordinating safety procedures for dangerous liquids, differences in voltage and other issues had already required considerable back and forth.

He added, however, that Pentagon approvals for Australia now often take weeks rather than months or years — and that the hurdles are worth overcoming primarily because the end products are in demand.

Video

Making explosives involves mixing, drying and packing volatile chemicals. Much of the production is done remotely from control rooms to minimize danger.CreditCredit...By Matthew Abbott
GMLRS are launched from tubes on trucks known as HIMARS, and they can hit targets 50 miles away with 200 pounds of explosives using GPS for precise strikes.

Last year, the United States supplied Ukraine with at least 20 HIMARS systems, along with GMLRS, and they rapidly shifted momentum in the conflict.

Taiwan has ordered at least 29 HIMARS launchers since 2020, adding another potential customer for Australia. Israel makes its own rocket systems, but American and Australian officials have discussed potential sales to allies in Europe.

GMLRS, an established, relatively straightforward product, would be what the Australians call a “pipe cleaner” — it will help clear out problems with joint production, paving the way for more missile and munition manufacturing.

In the Pentagon and Australian vision of the future, Australia and other U.S. partners will soon be the nodes of a global supply chain, producing interchangeable weapons with greater ramp-up capacity in more places where extra firepower could be needed.

Image

New explosives mixers will soon be installed at the Mulwala explosives factory, with a goal of doubling capacity for missiles co-production.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times
The weapons would be at least partly American. They just won’t have all come from America — and that may make avoiding a war or fighting one a lot easier.

“The West has a great opportunity to harness its collective industrial base, to ensure we maintain a rules-based global order,” said Air Marshal Leon Phillips, Australia’s most senior military official in charge of guided weapons and explosive ordnance. “We’re moving toward a just-in-case model, and away from just-in-time.”

Damien Cave is an international correspondent for

[mchughcb]

It just seems from my, admittedly layman, view that Defence has been in love with complex high dollar projects that look fantastic in a powerpoint presentation, or on paper, but when it comes time for reality we get the same things every time, cost overruns, time delays.

Sure, the same issues will inevitably plague a missle program, or as alexjones said, drones, but missiles and drones, even big ones are orders of magnitude less complex than Virginia class boats.

It's similar to gun manufacturing in Germany and Russia during ww2.
The Germans made technically brilliant weapons but they were more complex than they needed to be and took longer to make whereas Stalin made cheap stamped metal guns and simple artillery by the millions.

KIS

I believe it was Stalin who said "quantity has a quality of its own". The Soviets made so many T34 tanks that a lot of times the German tanks would run out of ammo and would have to withdraw from the field to rearm. Even though they would destroy 5 or 10 tanks for every one they lost the Soviets just had an endless supply of tanks. And with the factories in the Urals they were out of range of German bombers.

The Germans are renowned for over engineering. Making things expensive to produce and needing a lot of maintenance.

Word on the street is the Abrams tank was taken out by a T72 and they have a lot of them.

[Oldbloke]

The US Virginia Subs are far from guaranteed.

https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/ ... l-worsens/

[Lazarus]

$4.6 billion to "help expand the US ship building base"?

What about spending a quarter of that to support the Australian ship building industry?

Labor has doubled down on the Liberal's bridge buying spree.

Lucky Country?
Come down and we'll spread our cheeks country

[Oldbloke]

$4.6 billion to "help expand the US ship building base"?

What about spending a quarter of that to support the Australian ship building industry?

Labor has doubled down on the Liberal's bridge buying spree.

Lucky Country?
Come down and we'll spread our cheeks country

I would like very much we do that. Better still build subs here. But history says the locals will fuk it up.


They should have just bought the frog nuke subs. Instead of fuking with the design.

IMO every shooter in the country needs to build stocks of loaded ammo. We can't count on help from anyone.

[alexjones]

$4.6 billion to "help expand the US ship building base"?

What about spending a quarter of that to support the Australian ship building industry?

Labor has doubled down on the Liberal's bridge buying spree.

Lucky Country?
Come down and we'll spread our cheeks country

I would like very much we do that. Better still build subs here. But history says the locals will fuk it up.


They should have just bought the frog nuke subs. Instead of fuking with the design.

IMO every shooter in the country needs to build stocks of loaded ammo. We can't count on help from anyone.

100% agree on that mate. Every household needs food, water, batteries, supplies, as well as firearms and ammunition. I bet most people have insurance for their cars and house yet not for their families survival? Makes no sense.

[Lazarus]

$4.6 billion to "help expand the US ship building base"?

What about spending a quarter of that to support the Australian ship building industry?

Labor has doubled down on the Liberal's bridge buying spree.

Lucky Country?
Come down and we'll spread our cheeks country

I would like very much we do that. Better still build subs here. But history says the locals will fuk it up.


They should have just bought the frog nuke subs. Instead of fuking with the design.

IMO every shooter in the country needs to build stocks of loaded ammo. We can't count on help from anyone.

100% agree on that mate. Every household needs food, water, batteries, supplies, as well as firearms and ammunition. I bet most people have insurance for their cars and house yet not for their families survival? Makes no sense.

I've been asked several times, "Why do you want so much ammo?"
My answer is always, "Because, one day I might really need a lot of ammo".

Ask the Ukrainians
Slava Ukraine

[alexjones]

$4.6 billion to "help expand the US ship building base"?

What about spending a quarter of that to support the Australian ship building industry?

Labor has doubled down on the Liberal's bridge buying spree.

Lucky Country?
Come down and we'll spread our cheeks country

I would like very much we do that. Better still build subs here. But history says the locals will fuk it up.


They should have just bought the frog nuke subs. Instead of fuking with the design.

IMO every shooter in the country needs to build stocks of loaded ammo. We can't count on help from anyone.

100% agree on that mate. Every household needs food, water, batteries, supplies, as well as firearms and ammunition. I bet most people have insurance for their cars and house yet not for their families survival? Makes no sense.

I've been asked several times, "Why do you want so much ammo?"
My answer is always, "Because, one day I might really need a lot of ammo".

Ask the Ukrainians
Slava Ukraine

You can never have enough ammunition. If stored correctly ammunition is worth its weight in gold and can last forever. Each shipment that comes into the country just keeps going up in price so it makes sense to buy in bulk now because the cost of a box just keeps going up in price.

[mchughcb]

Getting back to the original OP.

As I think we all know, it isn't where it should be, way weaker than it was say,,,30 years ago.
IMO between the politicians and incompetent leadership of the ADI the purchase of equipment has been a debacle for many years. We seem to consistently pay top price for lemons.

Well, starting to look like AUKUS is on shaky ground now.
When will it end?

Yes we have paid top price for lemons. Building Subs for $US350B will somehow deter any country are you kidding me?

1. Nuclear deterrent is not a deterrent
2. The UK is in no position to defend Australia anymore than it was after the fall of Singapore.
3. Having major anti missile systems protecting all cities and infrastructure is going to be far cheaper
4. Australia wouldn't last a week without fuel from Singapore and yet we have no, repeat no plan. A few missiles into the Singapore refineries and Australia will surrender in a week.
5. The number of aircraft shot down in Ukraine has demonstrated that anti-aircraft systems will just about knock anything out of the sky from hundreds of km away.

At least we are going to have subs.

[on_one_wheel]

You can breathe a sigh of relief, the brains trust has increased our fuel reserves by ⅘ of SFA

"From 1 July 2023, the Minimum Stockholding Obligation will require Australia’s 2 refineries, and our major importers of refined fuels, to hold baseline stocks of:

petrol; 24 days, increasing to 27 days in 2024 for importers
diesel fuel; 20 days, increasing to 32 in 2024 for importers
jet fuel; 24 days, increasing to 27 days in 2024 for importers."

We saw what covid did to the shop shelves, What lessons have our leaders taken from this?
How are they preparing for the next big interruption?
It'll be out of control to the point if mass looting within a day or two of full blown war.

My prediction is that Banking will be shut down to prevent bank runs, communication will be shut down and the internet will stop working perhaps by China, perhaps by our own government, also we'll be ordered to stay at home.

We definitely can't rely on our government being prepared, they have NFI what they are doing, we need to prepare ourselves with stores of long life basics.

Anyone know where their nearest bomb shelter is?
Been briefed on the drill lately?
The Australian government has ZERO interest in protecting its citizens, we're nothing but drone bees to them.
They're just hoping we're staying distracted enough that we don't notice.

[alexjones]

You can breathe a sigh of relief, the brains trust has increased our fuel reserves by ⅘ of SFA

"From 1 July 2023, the Minimum Stockholding Obligation will require Australia’s 2 refineries, and our major importers of refined fuels, to hold baseline stocks of:

petrol; 24 days, increasing to 27 days in 2024 for importers
diesel fuel; 20 days, increasing to 32 in 2024 for importers
jet fuel; 24 days, increasing to 27 days in 2024 for importers."

We saw what covid did to the shop shelves, What lessons have our leaders taken from this?
How are they preparing for the next big interruption?
It'll be out of control to the point if mass looting within a day or two of full blown war.

My prediction is that Banking will be shut down to prevent bank runs, communication will be shut down and the internet will stop working perhaps by China, perhaps by our own government, also we'll be ordered to stay at home.

We definitely can't rely on our government being prepared, they have NFI what they are doing, we need to prepare ourselves with stores of long life basics.

Anyone know where their nearest bomb shelter is?
Been briefed on the drill lately?
The Australian government has ZERO interest in protecting its citizens, we're nothing but drone bees to them.
They're just hoping we're staying distracted enough that we don't notice.

I hoped that the one positive of the covid tyranny was that the government would start producing things in Australia again. But alas it is not the case.

People need to always be their own first responders and not rely on the government because the government is useless and when stuff really does hit the fan will not provide for you.

[on_one_wheel]

100%

Back when we did produce things, production lines were modified to produce the tools of war... there's barely a single factory left that can do that now.

We're already running out of medicines while nothing disastrous is happening.
Population growth alone is causing shortages of many things yet they're still pushing for more growth.

[mchughcb]

You can breathe a sigh of relief, the brains trust has increased our fuel reserves by ⅘ of SFA

"From 1 July 2023, the Minimum Stockholding Obligation will require Australia’s 2 refineries, and our major importers of refined fuels, to hold baseline stocks of:

petrol; 24 days, increasing to 27 days in 2024 for importers
diesel fuel; 20 days, increasing to 32 in 2024 for importers
jet fuel; 24 days, increasing to 27 days in 2024 for importers."

We saw what covid did to the shop shelves, What lessons have our leaders taken from this?
How are they preparing for the next big interruption?
It'll be out of control to the point if mass looting within a day or two of full blown war.

My prediction is that Banking will be shut down to prevent bank runs, communication will be shut down and the internet will stop working perhaps by China, perhaps by our own government, also we'll be ordered to stay at home.

We definitely can't rely on our government being prepared, they have NFI what they are doing, we need to prepare ourselves with stores of long life basics.

Anyone know where their nearest bomb shelter is?
Been briefed on the drill lately?
The Australian government has ZERO interest in protecting its citizens, we're nothing but drone bees to them.
They're just hoping we're staying distracted enough that we don't notice.

100% correct.

[mchughcb]

You can breathe a sigh of relief, the brains trust has increased our fuel reserves by ⅘ of SFA

"From 1 July 2023, the Minimum Stockholding Obligation will require Australia’s 2 refineries, and our major importers of refined fuels, to hold baseline stocks of:

petrol; 24 days, increasing to 27 days in 2024 for importers
diesel fuel; 20 days, increasing to 32 in 2024 for importers
jet fuel; 24 days, increasing to 27 days in 2024 for importers."

We saw what covid did to the shop shelves, What lessons have our leaders taken from this?
How are they preparing for the next big interruption?
It'll be out of control to the point if mass looting within a day or two of full blown war.

My prediction is that Banking will be shut down to prevent bank runs, communication will be shut down and the internet will stop working perhaps by China, perhaps by our own government, also we'll be ordered to stay at home.

We definitely can't rely on our government being prepared, they have NFI what they are doing, we need to prepare ourselves with stores of long life basics.

Anyone know where their nearest bomb shelter is?
Been briefed on the drill lately?
The Australian government has ZERO interest in protecting its citizens, we're nothing but drone bees to them.
They're just hoping we're staying distracted enough that we don't notice.

I hoped that the one positive of the covid tyranny was that the government would start producing things in Australia again. But alas it is not the case.

People need to always be their own first responders and not rely on the government because the government is useless and when stuff really does hit the fan will not provide for you.

The manufacture of N95 makes in Victoria on a shed that had to use the army because nobody wanted to work.

[Lazarus]

I just watched a report about our "one day, sometime, perhaps" submarines
After giving the richest country in the world $4.6 billion to boost their shipbuilding capacity, we have now given another $4.6 billion to the Poms to help their ship build industry.

Am I the only one wondering how much good that $9.2 billion could do for our bloody ship building industry?

[on_one_wheel]

9.3 B for nothing.
Add that to whatever we gave the frogs to not build subs.

[Lazarus]

It's no wonder we are at the arse end of everything, we get evrrything last, movies, phones, updates, we just let people walk all over us because we're a "nice" country.

Nice guys finish last

Always

[Bugman]

It's no wonder we are at the arse end of everything, we get evrrything last, movies, phones, updates, we just let people walk all over us because we're a "nice" country.

Nice guys finish last

Always

Yep. Couldn't agree more. And all I want is some Trail Boss. I am oh so tired of being a "nice guy"

[Oldbloke]

I just watched a report about our "one day, sometime, perhaps" submarines
After giving the richest country in the world $4.6 billion to boost their shipbuilding capacity, we have now given another $4.6 billion to the Poms to help their ship build industry.

Am I the only one wondering how much good that $9.2 billion could do for our bloody ship building industry?

Just more of the same when it comes to defence procurement. Same for past 35 years.

[Oldbloke]

Mmm, bit more about the Nuke Subs. But mostly just talk I think.

https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/ ... 5-66264758